CLARITY Act Floor Vote in Jeopardy as Senate Republicans Release Ethics-Free Draft

Senate Republicans circulated a new CLARITY Act draft on July 17, one that omits the conflict-of-interest language Democrats have made a precondition for their votes. With a floor vote targeted for the week of July 20 and Congress departing for August recess in early August, the bill's path to 60 votes has narrowed to a single window.

Prediction markets on Polymarket put passage at roughly 41% as of July 17.

Murphy, Van Hollen, and Merkley Formally Oppose: Why Three Democrats Declared Against the CLARITY Act

Senators Chris Murphy (CT), Chris Van Hollen (MD), and Jeff Merkley (OR) held a formal press conference on July 15 declaring they cannot vote for the bill without meaningful ethics provisions. The declaration was notable not only for its directness but for the fact that Van Hollen sits on the Senate Banking Committee, which voted to advance the bill in May.

Van Hollen called it "a corrupt piece of legislation that will do a lot of harm." Murphy framed the issue around Trump's personal financial stake in the industry:

Senator Cory Booker, who has not joined the formal opposition bloc, acknowledged publicly that the bill can only advance through bipartisan compromise.

What the Demanded Ethics Provision Would Do, and Why Democrats Call It Non-Negotiable

The provision Democrats demand would bar senior federal officials (including the president) from personally engaging in or holding crypto. The demand is grounded in Trump's financial disclosures, which showed more than $1 billion in crypto industry earnings in 2025, per CoinDesk reporting, including an estimated $636 million attributed to the TRUMPTRUMP memecoin. Murphy has described that arrangement as "a means to make billions of dollars off of both bilking his supporters into buying a worthless token."

A White House meeting on July 15 convened Trump, advisers, and Republican senators specifically to work through the ethics section. Democratic negotiators were not in the room. Republicans then released the July 17 draft without the Democrats' ethics language, which is where the text now stands.

Why 8 Democratic Votes Are the Deciding Factor

The CLARITY Act needs 60 votes to clear a Senate filibuster. After the death of Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11, Republicans hold 52 seats, making at least eight Democratic crossover votes the minimum for passage.

Gallego Says Republicans Drafted Without Democratic Input

Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), the lead Democratic negotiator, called the Republican version "very weak" and confirmed his caucus had no role in the text Republicans brought to the White House. "They're taking a version of the text to the president with their ethics provisions, not with anything that we agree to as Democrats," Gallego said in remarks reported on July 17.

That framing matters for the vote count. The three senators who formally declared opposition on July 15 account for three of the eight Democrats Republicans need. Gallego has not formally joined the opposition bloc, but indicated publicly that the current text does not meet his caucus's requirements.

Moreno Targets Week of July 20; Thune Has Pledged the Floor Time

Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) is pushing for a vote the week of July 20. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has pledged a floor vote before the August recess and, per reporting on the July 15 White House meeting, signaled he intends to advance the bill in late July regardless of whether negotiators reach final agreement on ethics language. That stance leaves Democrats few options beyond voting no or accepting the Republican text.

The August recess is the hard deadline. As the Solana Policy Institute warned in late June, failing to clear the Senate before that window closes would push crypto market structure legislation into midterm election season, where the political calendar grows more difficult.

Kristin Smith on Fox Business: What the Path Forward Looks Like

Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, appeared on Fox Business on July 17 to discuss where the bill goes from here. The Institute has been central to the Solana ecosystem's engagement with the CLARITY Act process. It filed a CFTC letter in July proposing wallet software rules, 24/7 market standards, and blockchain recordkeeping, and its leadership testified before the Senate in June urging that Section 604 developer protections be preserved in the final text.

The ethics impasse has shadowed the bill since late June, when an earlier bipartisan deal on conflict-of-interest provisions collapsed. The July 17 draft is now the text the Senate will work from. Whether negotiators find ethics language eight Democratic senators can accept before the August recess will determine whether the first comprehensive US crypto market structure framework becomes law in the 119th Congress.