Goldman Sachs (GS) on Solana

Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider is heading into Nvidia's upcoming earnings with a buy rating and a $285 price target — implying roughly 33% upside from recent levels — while flagging a counterintuitive pattern: despite above-consensus results in each of the last four quarters, Nvidia shares have fallen on the session after earnings every time. Schneider's Q2 and Q3 EPS estimates sit 6% and 12% above Wall Street consensus respectively, and he expects "a solid quarter with meaningful upside to guidance supported by tight GPU supply/demand trends," but he cautions the bar is elevated following a 12% August rally in the stock.

Goldman's preview identifies five focal points that could drive the post-earnings move: details on Nvidia's customer financing platform and capital allocation strategy, the rollout timeline for the Vera Rubin AI platform, gross margin trends, CPU demand from agentic AI workloads, and competitive dynamics. Of particular concern is Nvidia's $105 billion OpenAI data center guarantee and its participation in a $500 billion AI infrastructure financing initiative — commitments that Goldman says have heightened vendor financing fears among investors and represent a key overhang the earnings call will need to address.

A Goldman Sachs research team led by strategist Ben Snider found that while AI infrastructure companies have been clear beneficiaries of the current investment cycle — generating roughly half of the S&P 500's 31% year-over-year EPS growth in Q2 — the broader case for AI lifting corporate earnings remains statistically thin. Only 11% of S&P 500 companies quantified productivity benefits from specific AI applications in the most recent quarter, and just 2% put a figure on AI's direct earnings contribution, a share unchanged from the prior quarter. Goldman found "a small and statistically insignificant difference in earnings growth" between companies reporting measurable AI productivity gains and the rest of the index.

The research signals Goldman's view that the earnings payoff from enterprise AI adoption is still nascent, even as per-employee AI spending at median S&P 500 companies more than doubled from $5 to $12 per month between January and July. AI inference costs remain below 0.5% of S&P 500 revenues, and two-thirds of companies are redirecting existing budgets rather than adding net new AI spending — patterns Goldman notes are consistent with a market still in early experimentation rather than productivity harvesting. The bank observes that investors are responding by concentrating gains in AI infrastructure names with visible near-term earnings rather than betting on which broader businesses will capture the largest productivity upside.

Goldman Sachs' most recent strategic move is the acquisition of LCN Capital Partners, a step that signals a deliberate push toward higher-margin, fee-generating businesses within its asset management division. The deal fits a broader pattern at the firm: moving away from capital-intensive balance-sheet risk and toward recurring advisory and management fees, a model that analysts note puts Goldman closer to "quality compounder" territory rather than a traditional capital markets cyclical.

The bank is also positioning itself in large-scale AI infrastructure financing alongside continued strength in prime brokerage, which posted record industry revenues. Investment banking backlog has grown for multiple consecutive quarters, and Goldman trades at a forward P/E of 15.7x — well below its estimated fair ratio of 19.2x and the peer average of 30.5x — suggesting the market has not yet fully priced in the firm's evolving revenue mix. Risks flagged include geopolitical disruption and regulatory constraints that could weigh on returns and delay share buyback timelines.

Goldman Sachs published a report titled "Second Space Age" forecasting the global space economy will reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from approximately $55 billion in capital that flowed into the sector in 2025. The bank argues space is becoming "a new pillar of the industrial economy," citing dramatically lower launch costs — from roughly $55,000 per kilogram during the Space Shuttle era to about $3,000 per kilogram today — driven by rocket reusability. The forecast covers communications, defense, Earth observation, launch, and orbital infrastructure.

Elon Musk pushed back on August 18, 2026, posting on X that Goldman's estimate "will be much bigger," pointing to potential commercial breakthroughs in orbital AI, mass satellite connectivity via Starlink — now operating across 167 countries — and reusable interplanetary transport as factors the forecast may underweight. SpaceX recently reported $7.81 billion in quarterly revenue, a $47.5 billion backlog, and 78 launches year-to-date, underscoring the sector's accelerating commercial scale.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said market pricing for the federal funds rate remains "too hawkish," and the firm forecasts the Fed will hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% through end-2026, pushing any cuts into 2027. Hatzius cited two consecutive months of materially weaker jobs and inflation data, noting it is "hard to see any of the doves shifting toward hikes" and that inflation is more likely to improve than deteriorate from here.

Market odds reflect the shift: the probability of a September rate hike dropped to 30%, with a pause now favored at 70%, and expectations that had fully priced a December hike just a week earlier have moved to January 2027. Goldman Sachs believes overly hawkish market bets have further room to unwind, a view grounded in softening retail sales and a cooling labor market.

Goldman Sachs strategists led by Ben Snider project S&P 500 companies will execute $1.4 trillion in share repurchases in 2026, roughly double the roughly $700 billion in primary equity issuance expected for the year. The bank's analysis notes that new share-repurchase authorizations had already approached $1 trillion year-to-date, with buyback growth running at approximately 11% year-over-year in Q2. Goldman frames the rising tide of equity issuance — which hit a record $252 billion in Q2 2026, with AI-related transactions accounting for around 40% of follow-on offerings — as a return to normal levels rather than a supply glut, arguing that corporate demand for shares will comfortably absorb it.

The forecast reinforces Goldman's positioning as a leading voice on U.S. equity market structure. By quantifying the net demand dynamic — buybacks outpacing primary issuance by a wide margin — the firm's research desk is effectively signaling confidence in continued equity market resilience despite elevated capital spending tied to AI infrastructure buildouts. The conclusion, in Goldman's own framing, is that corporate America remains "a significant net source of demand for U.S. equities in 2026."

Goldman Sachs is one of six financial institutions selected by Nvidia to help mobilize more than $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure buildout, announced August 10, 2026. The bank will deploy both its investment banking arm — placing debt into private credit funds and public markets — and its asset management division, which will provide junior capital and private credit financing to independent compute platforms built around Nvidia hardware. Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, and KKR are the other five partners; agreements remain subject to final execution.

CEO David Solomon described the moment as "pivotal" within "a historic AI investment cycle," adding that Nvidia's full-stack platform is "uniquely positioned at the center of that global buildout." For Goldman, the partnership extends a deliberate strategy to anchor traditionally volatile investment-banking revenue — advisory, underwriting, and trading — to durable, recurring streams in financing and asset management. The bank reported unusually profitable trading in Q2 2026, and executives have positioned the physical AI buildout as a multi-year, firm-wide revenue engine spanning all of its major business lines.

Goldman Sachs has launched callable senior notes spanning maturities from 2027 to 2041, adding fresh debt supply as the bank's equity trades near all-time highs. GS shares stood at $1,039.61 on August 8, 2026, up roughly 47% over the past year and 227% over three years, reflecting sustained momentum driven by record growth in its Asset & Wealth Management division and expanding fee-based revenue.

The valuation picture is split: analyst consensus puts a fair-value target at $978.35—suggesting the stock is approximately 6% above that mark—while a discounted-cash-flow model cited by Simply Wall St places intrinsic value at $1,139.30, implying the shares still trade at a discount to fundamental estimates. The bank's shift toward more stable, fee-generating businesses is highlighted as a structural positive, though analysts flag tighter capital requirements and a potential slowdown in deal activity as the main risks to the current premium multiple.

Goldman Sachs analysts argue that recent US-Japan coordination to support the yen — which had weakened to 40-year lows near 158 to the dollar — actually underscores the dollar's enduring dominance as a global reserve currency rather than signaling any erosion of it. The bank's core contention is that when central banks need to intervene in currency markets, they still require dollars to do so, reinforcing why dollar reserves remain essential. Goldman also pushed back on concerns that US Treasury involvement could deter other nations from holding dollar assets, calling such a conclusion "quite a leap" in logic.

Goldman pointed to the structural advantages that keep the dollar entrenched: deep, liquid US capital markets allow central banks to accumulate reserves during calm periods and deploy them under stress — a combination rival reserve assets have yet to replicate. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent separately proposed expanding the Federal Reserve's FIMA repo facility to cushion the market impact of sudden Treasury sales. Goldman did acknowledge longer-term risks to dollar dominance, including uncertainty around US institutions, but framed the yen episode as evidence that near-term displacement remains unlikely.

Goldman Sachs analysts have published a fresh batch of high-conviction buy ratings on European equities, projecting upside of more than 100% on at least two names. The most aggressive call is on UK fuel cell developer Ceres Power, where the firm sees 168% upside, citing a scalable licensing model and growing exposure to AI-driven data center demand after the stock fell more than 31% in July. Goldman also rates German defense contractor Rheinmetall at 102% upside, describing it as "significantly undervalued" and well-positioned to benefit from Europe's ongoing rearmament spending.

The calls highlight Goldman's research division functioning as a market-framing voice during a period of elevated sector volatility — identifying dislocated entry points and articulating a thesis across both clean energy infrastructure and defense manufacturing. Alongside the two triple-digit calls, the firm flagged BT Group and DSV each at 64% upside, reinforcing the bank's active coverage of European industrial and telecom plays at a time when sentiment-driven selloffs are creating gaps between price and Goldman's own fair-value estimates.