Bitcoin (BTC) on Solana

CME FedWatch data now shows a 70.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's September 15–16 meeting, up sharply from 37% just one week prior. Higher rates represent a structural headwind for Bitcoin: they lift yields on cash and government bonds, strengthen the dollar, tighten liquidity, and raise the cost of leveraged positions — all factors that reduce the relative appeal of volatile, non-yield-bearing assets. That said, the report notes much of this impact may already be priced in given how quickly market odds shifted.

Despite the macro pressure, Kalshi prediction market traders remain cautiously bullish on Bitcoin for the month. They currently assign a 72% probability that BTC trades above $80,000 at some point in September, a 50% chance it exceeds $82,500, and a 36% chance it clears $85,000. With Bitcoin trading near $77,800, reaching $82,000 would require roughly a 5.4% gain. Bitcoin has closed September in positive territory in each of the past four years (2023–2025), though whether that streak continues under renewed rate-hike pressure remains to be seen.

A Bitcoin hard fork backed by developer Luke Dashjr went live on September 1, splitting from the main chain to create a new network called BLAKE2b. The fork, proposed under BIP-110, replaces Bitcoin's SHA-256 proof-of-work algorithm with BLAKE2b — an approach designed to let ordinary computers mine again instead of requiring specialized ASIC hardware. Dashjr's camp had also pitched the change as a way to strip non-financial data from blocks, with proponents branding the original network "Spamcoin."

The market and mining community showed little interest. The new chain attracted minimal hashrate immediately after launch, with one earlier BIP-110 attempt dying after just two blocks in August. No major exchange listed the fork's coin; only one small beta platform accepted deposits under the ticker BTCB2. Bitcoin itself continued trading near $76,942, down roughly 1.3% on the day, with Blockstream CEO Adam Back summarizing the outcome as "live by the fork, die by the fork." The ASIC incompatibility proved especially damaging, as existing mining infrastructure cannot process the new chain, leaving it without the economic security needed to gain traction.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) ended a roughly two-month buying pause by acquiring 4,603 BTC for approximately $369.7 million, paying an average of $80,318 per coin. The purchase was funded through proceeds from a $602.8 million common stock sale, a structure the company uses to grow its Bitcoin treasury without taking on debt — though it does dilute existing shareholders. The company now holds 845,050 BTC in total, accumulated at an average cost of about $75,412 per coin for a cumulative outlay of roughly $63.73 billion, cementing its position as the largest publicly disclosed corporate Bitcoin holder.

The resumption of buying after a multi-month gap is being read as a signal of continued long-term conviction from Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, who has made Bitcoin treasury accumulation central to Strategy's identity. While one purchase does not set short-term market direction, the willingness to deploy capital at current prices — rather than waiting for lower levels — reinforces the institutional demand narrative that has been building around Bitcoin through 2025 and into 2026.

Bitcoin formed its first weekly death cross in three years in late August 2026, with its shorter-term moving average crossing below its longer-term counterpart as BTC traded near $78,000 — down roughly 5% from a recent high of $81,400, despite posting gains exceeding 30% for the month. Macro and on-chain analyst Nonzee argues the signal is not the start of a new collapse, framing it instead as part of the confidence-eroding sequence that historically precedes cycle bottoms, noting that "a bottom is not one candle" and that similar patterns appeared ahead of previous bullish reversals.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost flagged a meaningful divergence underlying the August rally: trading volumes remain at levels last seen in September 2023, pointing to broad investor disinterest even as price climbed. Because a death cross reflects lagging moving averages rather than current momentum, both analysts caution against reading it as a directional signal in isolation — with Darkfost noting that a sustained increase in volume accompanying higher prices would be a stronger indicator of a new bullish cycle.

A British investor known only as "Chris" has recovered a Bitcoin wallet now worth approximately £3.3 million after it sat inaccessible for twelve years. Chris originally purchased the BTC for £1,500 in 2011 through the Intersango exchange; when the exchange collapsed in 2014, his account — then worth around £4,000 — was frozen. Acting on his wife's advice in 2026, he engaged CEL Solicitors, who assembled ownership documentation and prepared US legal proceedings. The case resolved through negotiation without a court hearing, and the Bitcoin was transferred to his control within months.

The recovery story arrives as Bitcoin trades around $78,000 following a 26% rally from its mid-August low, with on-chain data showing the heaviest supply concentration between $83,000 and $86,000 — largely long-term holder positions that analysts describe as the next major resistance zone. Separately, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.23 billion in net creations over seven consecutive days, the strongest weekly intake of 2026, while all wallet-size cohorts tracked by on-chain analysts show positive accumulation trends.

Bitcoin fell to approximately $77,650, down roughly 2.4% on the session and retreating from above $81,000 earlier in the week. The pullback arrives just as correlation data suggests Bitcoin's identity is shifting: its 90-day correlation with gold has climbed above 50% — up from near zero at the start of 2026 — while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to around 33% from above 60%. With U.S. federal debt surpassing $40 trillion and Treasury borrowing requirements rising, analysts point to a renewed "debasement trade" that favors scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin.

On-chain data offers a relatively calm read on the sell-off. Six wallets dormant since 2011–2014 moved 553 BTC (roughly $40 million) between August 16–26, with most coins flowing to non-exchange addresses rather than immediately to market. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said Bitcoin has a "good chance" of reaching $100,000 by year-end, though the near-term price test below $78K will measure how durably the digital gold narrative has taken hold among investors who previously treated BTC as a risk-on tech proxy.

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci argues that $100,000 is the key psychological level that will draw investors back into Bitcoin. In his view, the round number triggered a wave of profit-taking from long-term holders, pulling Bitcoin more than 33% below its 2025 peak — a transition period in which ownership shifts from earlier holders to newer buyers. With Bitcoin trading near $79,000 at the time of the article, Scaramucci frames the pullback as a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign.

The secondary bullish argument from SkyBridge centers on the convergence of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology, which partner John Darsie suggests could provide Bitcoin with functional utility beyond pure speculation. Critics of the thesis point to the absence of audited financials or cash-flow metrics, leaving Bitcoin's valuation dependent on sustained investor demand — a reality Scaramucci's case ultimately rests on as well.

Hackers exploited a critical seed-generation flaw in Coldcard hardware wallets — manufactured by Canadian company Coinkite — to steal approximately $130 million in Bitcoin during late July and early August 2026. The vulnerability stemmed from weak random number generators used to create seed phrases, which allowed attackers to remotely derive users' private keys through brute-force techniques. Coinkite has since released updated firmware to address the flaw, though the breach has raised serious questions about the security guarantees that cold storage devices are assumed to provide.

The incident underscores that controlling your private keys is only part of the self-custody equation — the integrity of how those keys are generated is equally critical. For Bitcoin holders, the theft highlights a growing tension between the protocol's ethos of individual sovereignty and the practical security complexity that self-custody demands. Analysts note the episode may accelerate a broader shift toward institutional custody options such as spot Bitcoin ETFs among retail investors less equipped to manage hardware wallet security independently.

Bitcoin posted its strongest weekly advance since March 2023, surging roughly 24% between August 19 and August 24 to trade near $79,800 — recovering from below $64,000 after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to at least double long-dated bond buybacks, which triggered a wave of short liquidations that amplified the move. Spot Bitcoin ETFs captured approximately $1.9 billion in weekly net inflows, their largest since October 2025, across five consecutive days of positive flows — what Xapo Bank's Gadi Chait described as "evidence of genuine investor demand" rather than speculative momentum alone.

Analysts see the technical picture as supportive of further gains. Bullish engulfing patterns have formed on both the daily and weekly charts, with momentum indicators rebounding from oversold territory, and Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick wrote that his $100,000 year-end target may now be too conservative. The $80,000–$90,000 range is the near-term upside scenario most cited, contingent on whether Treasury expansion continues and the CLARITY Act advances; Jeff Mei of BTSE cautioned that without sustained macro catalysts, Bitcoin could pull back to $70,000, a level widely viewed as the key support floor.