SpaceX (SPACEX) on Solana

Alphabet's $900 million investment in SpaceX made in 2015 had grown to approximately $94.2 billion by June 30, 2026, according to 13F filing data — a more than 100-fold return over the decade. At that date, Alphabet held 551.2 million SpaceX shares valued at $170.86 each, making it by far the largest single institutional holder of the company following SpaceX's June 12, 2026 IPO at $135 per share. The next largest disclosed institutional holders, Gigafund Management and Baillie Gifford, held 171.8 million and 51.4 million shares respectively.

SpaceX stock traded at $146.15 on August 14, 2026, roughly 8.3% above its IPO price but well below the $170.86 close recorded at the end of the most recent 13F reporting period. As with all 13F data, the figures reflect holdings as of the filing date and do not capture any transactions or lockup expirations that may have occurred since.

SpaceX shares have rebounded roughly 41% from their August 3 low, trading above $146 and reclaiming territory well above the $135 IPO price, while short interest has simultaneously collapsed from a 34% peak to around 11% of publicly traded shares, according to data from S3 Partners. Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director at S3 Partners, noted that short sellers who wanted to press their bets have largely exhausted their position: "Shorts that wanted to short are out of bullets." The initial selloff followed SpaceX's first post-IPO earnings report, in which capital spending more than doubled revenue, unsettling growth-focused investors.

The rebound has been driven by several converging factors: Q2 revenue growth that beat Wall Street expectations, a major lockup expiration on August 8 that failed to trigger the feared wave of insider selling — approximately 911.5 million restricted shares became eligible for trading, lifting freely tradable float from 4.9% to 11.8%, yet prices climbed rather than fell — and Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund disclosing a $1.2 billion position in the company. Bears who covered their short positions by buying back shares contributed to the buying pressure, though analysts caution that the expanded float means fresh selling supply could emerge in the weeks ahead.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reaffirmed his $300 price target on SpaceX (SPCX) on August 11, while outlining a bull case that would push shares to $600 — an $8 trillion implied market cap and more than four times the stock's recent price of around $133. Of Morgan Stanley's $300 base-case target, only $8 per share is attributed to traditional space operations; the bulk comes from connectivity ($128) and enterprise AI ($152), with X and Grok adding another $12. The takeaway is that Morgan Stanley views SpaceX primarily as an AI and connectivity infrastructure company, not a launch provider.

The $600 bull case carries demanding conditions: SpaceX must deploy orbital AI data centers at half current cost using reusable Starship rockets, and Starlink must reach hundreds of millions of AI-powered robot subscribers by 2040 at roughly $35 average revenue per user. Jonas is among the most bullish of the 32 analysts covering the stock, whose average target sits at $227. Skeptics are harder to dismiss — Morningstar values the core launch and Starlink businesses at roughly $40 per share, and assigns only a 7% probability to its own $154 "Moonshot" scenario, citing heavy AI capital expenditures, uncertain unit economics, and customers who can exit Starlink leases on 90-day notice with no penalty.

SpaceX (SPCX) gained roughly 4% on August 10, closing above its $135 IPO price for the first time since July 15 — a meaningful technical reset for a stock that had fallen as low as $108.27 in post-debut trading. The rebound comes after SpaceX's Q2 earnings topped expectations, with revenue of $7.81 billion exceeding analyst estimates of $6.93 billion. Deutsche Bank analysts noted that SpaceX's target of $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by year-end is "likely very achievable," providing a forward anchor for investor sentiment.

The recovery also cleared a significant supply overhang: SpaceX's first lockup period expired the prior Thursday, unlocking more than 911 million shares held by early investors — well above the 639 million shares sold in the IPO itself. That the stock absorbed the additional float and still closed above the $135 level signals some stabilization in demand after weeks of volatile post-IPO price discovery.

SpaceX (SPCX) has shed 34% from its post-IPO peak as of August 10, 2026, despite posting 92% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2026 — totaling $7.8 billion for the quarter, with Starlink contributing $4.3 billion in revenue and $1.6 billion in operating profit. At a market capitalization of roughly $1.7 trillion, the stock trades at approximately 56x annualized sales, a multiple that Motley Fool analyst Keithen Drury argues already embeds substantial future growth, noting "a ton of growth already priced into the stock."

Drury cautioned that, absent significant breakthroughs, a $10,000 investment at current prices would likely be worth no more than $10,000 by end of 2027. The company is simultaneously investing heavily — $15.8 billion in AI computing capex in Q2 alone through its xAI division, which contributed $2.56 billion in revenue — while its Space division remains unprofitable at $962 million in revenue. The combination of a stretched valuation and enormous near-term capital expenditure requirements is the central tension investors face with SPCX at current levels.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has set a $190 price target on SpaceX, representing roughly 43% upside from the stock's August 7 closing price of $133.11. Ives frames SpaceX as "well-positioned to become a major hyperscaler" built on a vertically integrated platform spanning connectivity, launch services, and AI infrastructure — a combination he sees as differentiating the company from traditional aerospace or cloud peers.

The bullish case rests on three revenue pillars. Starlink connectivity led Q2 2026 with $4.3 billion in revenue across 12 million subscribers and more than 10,000 satellites in orbit. Launch services contributed $962 million year-to-date, serving as the backbone for satellite deployment and planned orbital data centers. The fastest-growing segment is AI infrastructure, which posted $2.6 billion in Q2 revenue — a 247% year-over-year increase — with $14.1 billion in contracted computing capacity already secured. Among 37 analysts tracked, the median price target sits at $217, with the range spanning $75 to $800.

Argus Research analyst Steven Silver upgraded SpaceX (SPCX) from Hold to Buy on August 7, setting a $160 price target and citing the company's strong revenue growth alongside early evidence that its heavy AI infrastructure spending may return capital faster than the market expected. The call came days after SpaceX's Q2 report showed revenue of $7.8 billion — up 92% year over year — but the stock had initially sold off when the company disclosed roughly $18.4 billion in quarterly capital expenditures, with about $15.8 billion tied to AI infrastructure. Argus characterized the reaction as an overreaction, pointing to "robust growth and solid operational results" and the potential for "rapid payback periods on these AI investments."

The bullish thesis turns on payback speed: CFO Bret Johnsen told investors on the earnings call that SpaceX is achieving "less than a one-year payback" on AI compute spending. Argus sees SpaceX's launch business, Starlink satellite network, and AI ambitions — including plans for 15 to 20 gigawatts of AI power capacity and orbital data centers expected to begin launching next year — as reinforcing drivers of long-term growth. Other analysts remain constructive as well; Morgan Stanley holds an Overweight rating with a $300 price target and Bernstein raised its target to $248, suggesting the Argus upgrade reflects a broader Wall Street view that near-term spending concerns do not undermine the long-run investment case.

SpaceX has unveiled Starmind, an orbital AI data center network built in partnership with Nvidia, targeting space-based compute and data services as the company expands beyond launch revenue. Alongside this, SpaceX and Tesla announced Terafab, a $16.8 billion chip manufacturing facility planned for Texas to secure AI hardware supply at scale.

The moves deepen SpaceX's pivot toward AI infrastructure — a segment that generated $2.6 billion in Q2 2026 revenue — while layering significant capital commitments on top of a quarter that already posted a $541 million net loss on $7.8 billion in sales.