SpaceX (SPACEX) on Solana

Harvard University disclosed a $2.2 billion SpaceX position as of the most recent quarter-end, making it the largest individual holding within the university's $4.3 billion U.S. equity portfolio. The disclosure lifted SPCX shares more than 1% overnight on Sunday. Several other universities also reported significant SpaceX exposure, including the University of California with roughly $1 billion in shares and sizable positions at the University of North Carolina and Washington University in St. Louis.

Mizuho reiterated an Outperform rating with a $200 price target, implying approximately 43% upside from SPCX's recent price of around $140. The analyst note landed alongside fresh Grok 4.6 benchmark results showing xAI's model performing roughly in line with OpenAI and Anthropic's latest offerings on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index — a competitive development for SpaceX's AI ambitions given Musk's comments on the company's first earnings call that SpaceX is building exclusively on Nvidia's Vera Rubin architecture.

SpaceX has completed a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor, an AI coding startup, in what the companies describe as "the second largest venture-backed acquisition on record." Cursor will be folded into SpaceX's xAI division, adding a software layer for developer workflows atop the company's existing GPU infrastructure and satellite network.

The deal extends SpaceX's push beyond raw compute capacity toward higher-margin AI services, connecting Cursor's developer tools directly to SpaceX's orbital network and cloud ambitions. The company reported $2.6 billion in AI segment revenue in Q2 2026, with 1.4 gigawatts of compute operational and a target of exceeding 2 gigawatts by year-end — though SpaceX remains unprofitable at the group level.

Nvidia disclosed in an SEC filing that it held 122.8 million SpaceX Class A shares valued at approximately $21 billion as of June 30, 2026, making SpaceX the chipmaker's second-largest equity position behind only its Intel stake of roughly $22 billion. The position traces back to Nvidia's $10 billion investment in xAI in January 2026, which converted into SpaceX equity when SpaceX acquired xAI for $1.25 trillion in February, establishing Nvidia as SpaceX's sixth-largest shareholder after Elon Musk and Alphabet.

The disclosure reinforces the deepening strategic relationship between the two companies: SpaceX has committed to deploying Nvidia's Vera Rubin chip architecture exclusively across its terrestrial and orbital AI data centers. By the time of the filing's release, SpaceX shares had retreated from a late-June high of $170.86 to around $140, trimming the position's mark-to-market value to approximately $17.2 billion, though Nvidia's stake remains one of the largest disclosed institutional holdings in SpaceX.

Alphabet's $900 million investment in SpaceX made in 2015 had grown to approximately $94.2 billion by June 30, 2026, according to 13F filing data — a more than 100-fold return over the decade. At that date, Alphabet held 551.2 million SpaceX shares valued at $170.86 each, making it by far the largest single institutional holder of the company following SpaceX's June 12, 2026 IPO at $135 per share. The next largest disclosed institutional holders, Gigafund Management and Baillie Gifford, held 171.8 million and 51.4 million shares respectively.

SpaceX stock traded at $146.15 on August 14, 2026, roughly 8.3% above its IPO price but well below the $170.86 close recorded at the end of the most recent 13F reporting period. As with all 13F data, the figures reflect holdings as of the filing date and do not capture any transactions or lockup expirations that may have occurred since.

SpaceX shares have rebounded roughly 41% from their August 3 low, trading above $146 and reclaiming territory well above the $135 IPO price, while short interest has simultaneously collapsed from a 34% peak to around 11% of publicly traded shares, according to data from S3 Partners. Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director at S3 Partners, noted that short sellers who wanted to press their bets have largely exhausted their position: "Shorts that wanted to short are out of bullets." The initial selloff followed SpaceX's first post-IPO earnings report, in which capital spending more than doubled revenue, unsettling growth-focused investors.

The rebound has been driven by several converging factors: Q2 revenue growth that beat Wall Street expectations, a major lockup expiration on August 8 that failed to trigger the feared wave of insider selling — approximately 911.5 million restricted shares became eligible for trading, lifting freely tradable float from 4.9% to 11.8%, yet prices climbed rather than fell — and Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund disclosing a $1.2 billion position in the company. Bears who covered their short positions by buying back shares contributed to the buying pressure, though analysts caution that the expanded float means fresh selling supply could emerge in the weeks ahead.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reaffirmed his $300 price target on SpaceX (SPCX) on August 11, while outlining a bull case that would push shares to $600 — an $8 trillion implied market cap and more than four times the stock's recent price of around $133. Of Morgan Stanley's $300 base-case target, only $8 per share is attributed to traditional space operations; the bulk comes from connectivity ($128) and enterprise AI ($152), with X and Grok adding another $12. The takeaway is that Morgan Stanley views SpaceX primarily as an AI and connectivity infrastructure company, not a launch provider.

The $600 bull case carries demanding conditions: SpaceX must deploy orbital AI data centers at half current cost using reusable Starship rockets, and Starlink must reach hundreds of millions of AI-powered robot subscribers by 2040 at roughly $35 average revenue per user. Jonas is among the most bullish of the 32 analysts covering the stock, whose average target sits at $227. Skeptics are harder to dismiss — Morningstar values the core launch and Starlink businesses at roughly $40 per share, and assigns only a 7% probability to its own $154 "Moonshot" scenario, citing heavy AI capital expenditures, uncertain unit economics, and customers who can exit Starlink leases on 90-day notice with no penalty.

SpaceX (SPCX) gained roughly 4% on August 10, closing above its $135 IPO price for the first time since July 15 — a meaningful technical reset for a stock that had fallen as low as $108.27 in post-debut trading. The rebound comes after SpaceX's Q2 earnings topped expectations, with revenue of $7.81 billion exceeding analyst estimates of $6.93 billion. Deutsche Bank analysts noted that SpaceX's target of $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by year-end is "likely very achievable," providing a forward anchor for investor sentiment.

The recovery also cleared a significant supply overhang: SpaceX's first lockup period expired the prior Thursday, unlocking more than 911 million shares held by early investors — well above the 639 million shares sold in the IPO itself. That the stock absorbed the additional float and still closed above the $135 level signals some stabilization in demand after weeks of volatile post-IPO price discovery.