Anthropic PreStocks (ANTHROPIC) on Solana

With Anthropic's S-1 expected before the end of August 2026, the filing will for the first time formally disclose Amazon's exact ownership percentage — a figure that has significant implications for AWS revenue modeling. Amazon has invested $13 billion in Anthropic to date, with up to an additional $20 billion contingent on commercial milestones. Anthropic's current valuation stands at approximately $965 billion following its $65 billion Series H, and the company is targeting an IPO raise that would match or exceed SpaceX's recent record.

The Amazon-Anthropic relationship extends well beyond equity. Anthropic has pledged more than $100 billion in AWS infrastructure spending over ten years, deployed over one million Trainium chips under Project Rainier, and powers Amazon Bedrock — which serves more than 100,000 customers using Claude models. With quarterly revenue now exceeding $11.5 billion and an annualized run rate approaching $65 billion, the S-1's disclosure of the full commercial dependency between the two companies is expected to give AWS investors a clearer framework for modeling the cloud revenue acceleration tied to Anthropic's infrastructure demand.

Investors in Anthropic are reportedly pushing for a $2 trillion valuation in an expected October IPO — roughly double the $965 billion valuation the company secured when it raised $65 billion just days before filing a confidential draft registration statement on June 1. Notably, that $2 trillion figure comes from investors, not from Anthropic's senior executives, who have not privately endorsed the target. The company's financials support rapid growth — second-quarter revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, more than double Q1's $4.73 billion — with investors projecting annualized revenue of $100–120 billion by year-end.

The cautionary backdrop is SpaceX, which holds the current IPO record at a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation after raising approximately $75 billion at $135 per share in June. Despite reporting 92% revenue growth and $14.1 billion in new contracts, SpaceX shares surged 67% to $225.64 before falling 22% below the offer price to $104.83, and now trade near the original $135 — leaving initial buyers essentially flat. Analysts note the dynamic reflects a recurring pattern where offer prices are already calibrated to reflect known growth, leaving limited upside for public-market entrants even when business fundamentals remain strong.

Anthropic generated $11.5 billion in Q2 2026 revenue, surpassing OpenAI's $6.7 billion in the same period — the first quarter in which Anthropic has led on revenue. The result represents a 14-fold year-over-year increase from $787 million in Q2 2025 and a 2.4x sequential jump from $4.73 billion in Q1 2026. Enterprise API usage accounts for 80–85% of revenue, with Claude Code contributing approximately $8 billion of the quarterly total. By the end of July, Anthropic's annualized revenue run-rate reached $65 billion, giving it a 34.4% share of the B2B AI market versus OpenAI's 32.3%.

Alongside the revenue milestone, Anthropic reported its first positive adjusted operating income — a meaningful shift for a company that had previously burned cash at scale to compete for training compute and talent. The profitability inflection arrives ahead of Anthropic's planned October 2026 IPO, where the company is targeting a post-money valuation near $965 billion with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan as lead underwriters. The combination of market-share leadership, triple-digit revenue growth, and a path to operating profitability materially strengthens the financial narrative underpinning that valuation.

Anthropic is preparing to file IPO paperwork as soon as the end of August 2026, putting it on track to beat OpenAI to public markets and potentially surpass SpaceX's record-setting $75 billion flotation completed in June — which stands as the largest private company IPO in history. The filing follows a May 2026 funding round that valued Anthropic at roughly $965 billion, and the company reported $11.5 billion in Q2 2026 revenue, a 14x year-over-year increase that significantly outpaces OpenAI's $6.2 billion over the same period.

For holders of the ANTHROPIC pre-IPO asset, the accelerated timeline narrows the gap between current tokenized pre-IPO exposure and a liquid public listing. OpenAI is not expected to go public until late 2026 or early 2027, leaving Anthropic positioned as the first major AI lab to access public capital markets. Risks cited include political friction with the Trump administration over military AI applications and competition from cheaper Chinese open-source models.

Bankers preparing Anthropic's planned October 2026 IPO are using a $190–200 billion 2028 revenue forecast as the basis for pricing, a departure from the trailing-twelve-month or next-year estimates that traditionally anchor public offerings. The company's revenue run rate reached roughly $47 billion in May 2026, up from $9 billion at end-2025, representing tenfold annual growth across three consecutive years. Anthropic is also projected to post its first quarterly operating profit of $559 million in Q2 2026. At a target $2 trillion valuation, the deal hinges entirely on investors accepting forward projections two years out rather than current results.

The unconventional pricing approach carries notable risk for pre-share holders watching the IPO timeline. Analysts cited in the report drew comparisons to 2026 mega-IPOs including Cerebras, SpaceX, and SK Hynix, each of which declined 38–43% from post-IPO peaks once quarterly results replaced growth-forecast euphoria as the market's primary metric. For Anthropic pre-share investors, the October target date and the $2 trillion pricing anchor represent the clearest timeline yet for a liquidity event, but the gap between banker projections and realized 2028 revenue will ultimately determine whether that valuation holds.

Elon Musk has reversed his earlier dismissal of Anthropic, now acknowledging the company as the fastest-growing AI startup globally, with annualized revenue reportedly double that of OpenAI. The admission underscores how quickly Anthropic's competitive position has shifted and adds external validation to the company's momentum heading into a reported 2026 IPO.

The reversal draws particular attention to Amazon's position. Amazon has committed $33 billion to Anthropic and secured agreements for Anthropic to use AWS as its primary cloud provider, with projected spending exceeding $100 billion. Amazon also holds an estimated 10%-plus equity stake in Anthropic, potentially worth around $250 billion at a $2 trillion IPO valuation. AWS currently runs at a $169 billion annualized revenue rate with 37% year-over-year growth, making Anthropic's cloud commitment a meaningful contributor to future trajectory.

Anthropic's Q2 2026 revenue more than doubled to $10.9 billion, with its annualized run rate estimated at $74.1 billion per Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff citing TickerTrends data — outpacing OpenAI's estimated $41.3 billion run rate. Despite expecting its first-ever operating profit in Q2, analysts note that operating profit excludes debt interest and taxes, meaning actual net income remains substantially lower. At a typical Nasdaq 100 trailing earnings multiple of 34x, Anthropic would need to generate between $59 and $79 billion in annual net profit to justify a $2 trillion IPO valuation — a figure that rivals Amazon's current $77.7 billion in net income, a level Anthropic has not approached.

Analysts see a credible but uncertain path. Avery Marquez of Renaissance Capital said reaching near operating profitability would at least make the valuation "maybe not seem so crazy," while Evan Schlossberg of Neostellar Capital identified compute access — owned infrastructure versus short-term leases — as the pivotal variable for long-term margin sustainability. Anthropic has secured compute arrangements with Amazon, Google, Broadcom, and SpaceX, and is pursuing a reported $6 billion acquisition of Decart AI for chip-optimization software. Its enterprise-focused B2B customer base is viewed as a structural advantage over OpenAI's consumer-heavy model, but translating top-line growth into the sustained net income necessary to support a $2 trillion valuation remains the central unresolved question ahead of an expected October 2026 IPO.

Anthropic shareholders are targeting a debut valuation above $2 trillion in the company's anticipated IPO, which would rank as the largest public offering on record and surpass SpaceX's current valuation. The company filed confidentially with US regulators in June and remains in a quiet period, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan leading the offering. The figure is roughly double Anthropic's most recent private funding round, which closed at a $965 billion post-money valuation.

CNBC's Jim Cramer argued the $2 trillion mark is defensible given Anthropic's revenue trajectory, noting "the multiple holds up as long as the sales arrive." Annualized revenue reportedly cleared $47 billion in May 2026, with projections pointing toward $100–120 billion by December — representing more than tenfold growth in a single year. One investor cited in the report suggested that 800% annual growth could justify a valuation of $3 trillion or higher at 30x revenue. For holders of tokenized pre-IPO exposure via ANTHROPIC on Solana, the report reinforces the scale of the valuation the offering is expected to target when it eventually opens to public markets.

Prediction market traders on Polymarket have rotated their central expectation for Anthropic's Nasdaq debut from September into late October, according to Yahoo Finance reporting on August 12. The probability of a listing by end of October rose 19 percentage points to 62%, while the September 15 and September 30 contracts collapsed to 2% and 13% respectively — the September 30 contract shedding 73 points on significant volume. The shift aligns with the timeline widely reported since Anthropic filed confidentially for a listing on June 1, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley leading the offering.

Broader market sentiment remains constructive on the deal itself: Polymarket currently assigns a 96% probability that Anthropic closes its first trading day valued at $600 billion or above, and an 85% chance the company lists before OpenAI. Total trading volume across Anthropic IPO contracts stands at $1.4 million, with $490,000 concentrated in the September 30 contract alone — a position that has largely been unwound as traders reprice toward a late-October window. Anthropic was last valued at approximately $965 billion in a May funding round.

Bloomberg reported Monday that Anthropic is the unnamed "leading frontier AI" company behind a 20-year, $9.1 billion computing deal with Riot Platforms. Riot had disclosed the agreement earlier that day without identifying the customer; Bloomberg's identification of Anthropic — citing people familiar with the matter — sent RIOT shares surging more than 26% in the overnight session, making it the top trending ticker on Stocktwits with retail investor sentiment shifting to "extremely bullish."

Under the agreement, Riot will supply 191 megawatts of high-performance computing capacity from its Rockdale, Texas facility to Anthropic. The contract is one of two deals Riot announced totaling 241 megawatts and roughly $9.8 billion in long-term contracted revenue, further marking the company's pivot from Bitcoin mining toward AI data center infrastructure — a transition that also included a January 2026 partnership with AMD covering 25 megawatts of capacity.