Eli Lilly (LLY) on Solana

Eli Lilly reported on September 30 that EloraTZP, a combination of its experimental amylin drug eloralintide with tirzepatide (the active ingredient in Zepbound and Mounjaro), produced more weight loss than tirzepatide alone in a mid-stage trial. The study enrolled 367 people with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes, and results were presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes annual meeting in Milan. After 48 weeks, patients on the highest dose (9mg eloralintide plus 15mg tirzepatide) lost an average of 23.3% of their body weight, against 14.8% for the highest dose of tirzepatide alone. The combination also cut A1C by up to 2.9%, compared with 2.4% for tirzepatide and 1.4% for eloralintide on its own.

Tolerability was the weak point. Between 10.8% and 27% of patients across the EloraTZP dose groups stopped treatment because of adverse events, mostly gastrointestinal and concentrated during dose escalation. Only 2.9% stopped on tirzepatide alone. Kenneth Custer, president of Lilly's cardiometabolic health division, said the company uses studies like this to learn how the drugs should be administered and then adjusts. Lilly plans to start Phase 3 trials of the combination before the end of 2026, is developing a fixed-dose single-injection version, and is already testing eloralintide by itself in a separate Phase 3 obesity program.

Eli Lilly held about 61% of the U.S. GLP-1 market in the second quarter, against roughly 39% for Novo Nordisk, CNBC reports. The lead now reaches the newer oral segment as well. CEO Dave Ricks said one-third of new GLP-1 pill patients are taking Foundayo, Lilly's small-molecule obesity pill, and that its share is growing "week by week." Foundayo carries looser food and water restrictions than rival pills and is easier to manufacture at scale. On the injectable side, Zepbound, which shares tirzepatide with the diabetes drug Mounjaro, has outperformed original Wegovy doses on efficacy.

Analysts quoted by CNBC point to Lilly's "tremendous commercial firepower" and its bigger promotional budget. Its pipeline is also moving: Lilly plans to seek approval for the triple-agonist retatrutide in the first quarter of 2027 and is developing a weekly amylin-receptor injection that works on a separate appetite pathway. Novo, for its part, is betting on a wider pipeline to replace Wegovy and Ozempic revenue as those drugs lose exclusivity.

The US Food and Drug Administration has approved Eli Lilly's once-weekly insulin Onswik for adults with type 2 diabetes, CNBC's Investing Club reported on September 24. A weekly shot replaces daily basal insulin injections, which CNBC says could spare patients more than 300 injections a year. Lilly is the second company to reach this market: Novo Nordisk launched the first weekly long-acting insulin earlier in 2026. CNBC expects Onswik to make up less than 1% of Lilly's 2030 sales.

Lilly has also signed a research and licensing agreement with Chinese drugmaker InnoCare Pharma worth up to $3.35 billion. The deal adds programs in immunology, vaccines, cancer and mental health to Lilly's pipeline. CNBC described it as Lilly "putting its GLP-1 windfall to use, giving it more shots on goal for future growth." Lilly shares rose more than 3% on the day.

Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC that 700,000 new Medicare seniors have initiated GLP-1 obesity therapy since Medicare coverage launched in July 2026, and Lilly is capturing roughly 70% of those patients. The rollout is running through the company's temporary "Bridge" program, which allows eligible beneficiaries to access Lilly's weight-loss drugs at a $50 monthly co-pay. Ricks described the program's implementation as smooth, with CMS coordinating effectively across providers and insurers.

Within Lilly's GLP-1 portfolio, Zepbound (tirzepatide injection) is being directed by physicians toward patients with significant weight and obesity-related complications, while Foundayo — the oral tirzepatide tablet launched in April 2026 — is drawing patients who need to lose roughly 25–30 pounds and prefer a pill. About one-third of all new GLP-1 pill patients are choosing Foundayo over Novo Nordisk's competing oral option, according to Ricks. The early Medicare adoption figures represent the first concrete read on how coverage expansion is translating into volume gains for Lilly, and the 70% share rate signals that tirzepatide is maintaining its competitive edge over Novo's semaglutide-based alternatives.

Novo Nordisk shares fell roughly 5–7% on Monday after the company laid out a 2030 growth strategy that analysts found unconvincing, underscoring how much competitive ground it has already ceded to Eli Lilly in the GLP-1 market. Novo aims to launch more than five "multi-blockbuster" drugs by 2030 and generate over 150 billion Danish kroner ($23 billion) in pipeline sales by 2035, but the targets did little to reassure investors worried about semaglutide's patent expiry in the early 2030s and Lilly's accelerating lead. Lilly's Zepbound is projected to outsell Wegovy by more than $7 billion this year, according to LSEG data, while Novo's full-year sales guidance has been cut to a range of zero to minus 6% growth.

The divergence in fortunes is stark: Novo's stock has declined more than 70% from its 2023 peak—when it briefly held Europe's highest market cap above $600 billion—while Lilly's shares have surged over the same period. Analysts are pressing Novo CEO Mike Doustdar to diversify beyond obesity and diabetes into areas such as cardiovascular medicine and rare diseases, arguing that GLP-1 competition alone will not restore growth. For Eli Lilly, Novo's strategic uncertainty reinforces tirzepatide's position as the category leader while Lilly continues to build out its own pipeline well ahead of any near-term patent pressure.

Eli Lilly has entered an exclusive research and collaboration agreement with QurCan Therapeutics, a UK-based biotech focused on non-viral genetic medicine delivery. Under the deal, QurCan receives an upfront payment and a strategic investment from Lilly, with each programme eligible for up to $237 million in development and commercial milestones plus tiered royalties on global sales. The partnership centres on QurCan's TERP (Target-Engineered Responsive Polymer) platform, a polymer-lipid nanoparticle system designed to deliver mRNA, DNA, and oligonucleotide payloads to the central and peripheral nervous systems.

The agreement extends Lilly's push into next-generation therapeutic modalities, following recent deals with Kelonia Therapeutics and Profluent and a partnership with Seamless. By pairing QurCan's delivery technology with Lilly's neuroscience drug development and commercialisation infrastructure, the collaboration targets CNS and PNS diseases that have historically been difficult to address with conventional medicines.

Eli Lilly's EVP Ilya Yuffa, speaking at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference in September 2026, outlined the company's strategy to broaden patient access to its obesity portfolio through consumer advertising and a Medicare Bridge program. The Medicare Bridge initiative has been flagged by analysts as a near-term catalyst for Zepbound (tirzepatide injectable) and Foundayo, an oral formulation the company expects to file with US regulators in late 2026 following positive ACHIEVE clinical data.

Analysts see a wide range of potential outcomes for LLY: a bullish case projects $118 billion in revenue and $48.7 billion in earnings by 2029—implying roughly 14% annual growth and a fair-value estimate of $1,297 per share—while a more conservative scenario models $107.2 billion in revenue and $43.8 billion in earnings over the same period. Either path requires approximately $22 billion in earnings growth from the current $26.7 billion base. Risks cited include the stock's premium valuation, concentrated reliance on obesity drugs, and the possibility that drug-pricing reform could undercut the access expansion Lilly is actively promoting.

Novartis's pelacarsen — an antisense oligonucleotide partnered with Ionis Pharmaceuticals — failed its late-stage trial on September 4, 2026, after it did not achieve a statistically significant reduction in cardiovascular events despite successfully lowering lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) levels. Analysts had projected peak annual sales of $4–5 billion for the drug, and the failure sent Amgen shares down roughly 10% while Eli Lilly fell only about 3%, reflecting the market's view that Lilly's competitive position in the race to treat Lp(a)-driven cardiovascular disease is comparatively stronger.

Lilly's candidate lepodisiran showed greater Lp(a) reduction than pelacarsen in phase 2 testing and is progressing in a late-stage study with a broader patient population, using a different molecular mechanism. The company also holds VERVE-102, a DNA base-editing therapy acquired through its 2025 purchase of Verve Therapeutics, which targets LDL cholesterol via PCSK9 gene suppression and provides a second cardiovascular pipeline lane. With roughly $23 billion in quarterly revenue — approximately $14.9 billion from Mounjaro and Zepbound — Lilly's core business cushions any Lp(a) setback while lepodisiran's distinct approach keeps the company in the multibillion-dollar race.

Jim Cramer designated Eli Lilly a core "running back" stock during a September 8 Mad Money episode, comparing it to a reliable compounder anchored by its GLP-1 franchise. The characterization reflects sustained institutional conviction around Lilly's weight-loss and diabetes drugs: Mounjaro generated $9.9 billion in Q2 revenue while Zepbound contributed $4.9 billion, together driving nearly 48% year-over-year sales growth for the company.

Institutional interest has deepened alongside that commercial momentum — 152 hedge funds held LLY positions as of the most recent quarter, up from 132 the prior quarter, with Fisher Asset Management the largest holder at roughly 5.06 million shares. The stock's forward P/E has compressed from around 45x at the start of the year to the 24–30x range, a shift analysts describe as a more balanced entry point. Risks cited include competition from Novo Nordisk, pricing pressure on GLP-1 drugs, and supply chain and clinical execution exposure.

The FDA has approved an expanded label for Eli Lilly's Mounjaro (tirzepatide) to include reduction of cardiovascular events in adults with type 2 diabetes, moving the drug beyond its original blood sugar control indication. Mounjaro is now the first dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist to carry a cardiovascular risk reduction claim, a milestone that meaningfully widens the eligible patient population and opens Lilly to new prescribing and payer conversations in cardiology alongside endocrinology.

For Eli Lilly's pipeline and commercial strategy, the label addition deepens Mounjaro's role within the company's dominant incretin franchise while sharpening its differentiation against GLP-1 rivals that lack the dual-agonist mechanism. Analysts are watching whether quarterly filings begin reflecting Mounjaro share gains in the cardiometabolic segment as prescribers respond to the broader indication — a critical variable for assessing how much of Lilly's increasingly concentrated GLP-1 revenue base can sustain long-term growth.