Strategy PP Variable (STRC) on Solana

Khing Oei, a former Goldman Sachs credit investor with 25 years of risky-debt valuation experience, argues that Strategy's perpetual preferred share STRC — currently trading at $85.29 — has a fair value closer to $96.30, implying a roughly 13% discount. His methodology treats STRC like a bond rather than leaning on the surface "14% yield" figure that simply divides the 12% annual coupon by the discounted price. Instead, Oei counts the actual stream of $1.73 billion in annual dividend payments Strategy must fund from its Bitcoin treasury. With 843,775 BTC (worth roughly $54 billion) and $3 billion in cash on hand after accounting for $8 billion in senior debt claims, he estimates $50.2 billion backs the preferred. Bitcoin only needs to grow at 3.4% per year for dividends to continue indefinitely; if Bitcoin stays flat, Strategy can sustain payments for 29 years. Discounting that 29-year cash flow at 12% produces his $96.30 fair value.

Oei's central point is that the current $85 price implies the market is pricing in only 17 years of dividend coverage — a pessimistic assumption he views as excessive given that the senior preferred STRF, which has stronger claims, yields just 10.4%. For STRC holders, the thesis is that if the market corrects toward his fair value estimate, they collect the outsized current yield while price appreciation also compounds the return.

A survey of retail investors holding Strategy's perpetual preferred stocks reveals that 52% of STRC and SATA buyers entered below the $100 par value, suggesting the market has been pricing in meaningful credit and Bitcoin volatility risk rather than treating the instruments at face value. STRC and SATA are Strategy's preferred equity instruments designed to fund ongoing Bitcoin accumulation, offering fixed dividend yields that depend on Bitcoin's price performance to remain sustainable — a model Saylor has tied to a 3.3% annual Bitcoin growth floor. The below-par entry data indicates a significant cohort of holders secured an above-coupon effective yield, potentially reducing their downside exposure relative to par buyers. The finding matters for understanding STRC's holder base dynamics: a majority of owners built in a cushion that could limit forced selling pressure if Bitcoin pulls back, but it also reflects lingering skepticism about the instrument's long-term par recovery.

Michael Saylor argued that Bitcoin needs only a 3.3% annualized appreciation rate for capital gains on Strategy's Bitcoin holdings to fund dividends on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC) "indefinitely," assuming the company's capital structure remains unchanged. A breakeven analysis accompanying the statement showed that even at zero annual Bitcoin returns, existing unrealized gains would cover STRC dividend obligations for roughly 31 years before the buffer is exhausted.

The disclosure came alongside news that Strategy executed its largest-ever Bitcoin sale — 3,588 BTC sold for approximately $216 million at an average price of $60,200 per coin, below its average acquisition cost of $75,476. Proceeds were directed toward quarterly dividend payments and cash reserves, which now stand at $2.55 billion, giving the company a stated 2.2-year liquidity buffer for preferred dividends and interest expenses. MSTR stock fell more than 3% on the announcement.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse publicly criticized Michael Saylor's leveraged Bitcoin accumulation model, pointing to STRC's persistent discount below par as evidence of structural strain. STRC, Strategy's 10% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock, was trading around $74 — roughly 25–29% below its $100 par value — a spread Garlinghouse called "a pretty damning indictment" of the approach. He argued that "financial engineering does not drive long-term value" and that leverage amplifies losses during downturns in compounding fashion.

The discount reflects mounting market concern about Strategy's ability to sustain dividend obligations. The company carries approximately $1.2 billion in annualized preferred dividend commitments across all share classes, and the coverage window — measured in months of Bitcoin sales required to meet those payments — has narrowed from over seven years at the start of 2026 to roughly 14 months. In May 2026, Strategy sold 32 BTC, its first Bitcoin disposition in years, specifically to fund STRC dividend payments, underscoring the cash flow pressure. Strategy holds over 843,000 BTC at an average cost basis near $75,600, leaving it with significant unrealized losses at current Bitcoin prices.

Strategy's STRC preferred stock has fallen sharply, intensifying questions about the company's ability to sustain dividend obligations and its broader Bitcoin accumulation model. Analysts note that dividend payments on STRC are large relative to current cash reserves, meaning coverage is finite without additional capital raises or a payout policy adjustment — a concern amplified after Strategy reportedly sold Bitcoin to fund preferred dividends, departing from its longstanding "never sell" stance.

Adding to the pressure, law firms have launched investigations into STRC marketing practices, and Strategy's common stock now trades below the implied value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings. The combination of mounting legal scrutiny, dampened institutional appetite, and the debate over whether management's push to rebuild a roughly \$2.8 billion cash buffer signals a lasting strategic shift or a temporary course correction has placed the preferred stock and the company's capital markets credibility under fresh examination.

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno warned on June 23 that Strategy should halt new Bitcoin purchases and focus on rebuilding its cash reserves, which have declined 38% since the start of 2026. The firm's annual preferred stock dividend obligations have simultaneously ballooned from roughly $300 million to $1.2 billion as it issued more STRC shares to fund ongoing Bitcoin accumulation — compressing dividend coverage from over seven years down to just 14 months. Strategy's STRC preferred shares are currently trading around $82.50, roughly 17.5% below their $100 par value, with an implied yield of 11.5%.

Moreno argued that offloading Bitcoin to raise cash is not a viable fix given that all coins acquired during 2024–2026 carry an estimated aggregate unrealized loss of $10.6 billion, meaning forced sales would crystallize large losses and destroy shareholder value. CryptoQuant's prescription instead calls for Strategy to pause acquisitions until reserves reach approximately $2.8 billion — about 24 months of dividend coverage — and to replace its opportunistic buying approach with a systematic, model-driven framework that includes selling Bitcoin during bull markets to realize gains. JPMorgan analysts echoed similar concerns, noting that Strategy's recent small Bitcoin sale had already unsettled markets despite being largely symbolic.