Gold (GLD) on Solana

Spot gold held flat near $4,600.19 per ounce on Thursday as investors adopted a wait-and-see posture ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's inaugural Jackson Hole speech at 10 a.m. ET, according to Yahoo Finance. The metal has gained more than 13% in August alone — briefly touching a three-month high near $4,700 earlier in the week — supported by a weaker dollar and lower bond yields, but U.S. gold futures edged down 0.3% to $4,651.41 as the session opened.

The speech is closely watched because July's personal consumption expenditures index rose 3.7% year-over-year, keeping rate-hike risk alive. CME FedWatch data shows a 34% probability of a September increase and 74% odds of at least one hike by December. Higher rates tend to weigh on gold by lifting the relative appeal of yield-bearing assets, meaning Warsh's tone on inflation and policy direction could be a short-term catalyst in either direction for bullion prices.

Gold rose to $4,677.19 per ounce on August 25, its highest in over three months, as two macro tailwinds aligned: a weaker U.S. dollar — down roughly 0.8% in August — and the Treasury Department's decision to at least double the cap on its liquidity-support buyback operations for long-dated bonds, raising the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion. By suppressing long-end Treasury yields, the buyback expansion reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while dollar softness makes gold cheaper in other currencies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a willingness to expand the program further, keeping the policy tailwind open-ended.

The August surge has been sharp: gold is up roughly 15% on the month, with about 7% of that gain compressed into the final week following the buyback announcement. UOB analysts flagged the pace as potentially the strongest monthly advance since September 1999. Gold-backed ETFs absorbed 46.7 metric tons (approximately $6.4 billion) last week according to the World Gold Council, indicating institutional demand is reinforcing the move beyond the currency effect alone. Near-term attention turns to the Fed's PCE inflation gauge and Jackson Hole speeches for signals on rate-cut timing — catalysts that could extend or temper the rally depending on how they shift yield expectations.

Spot gold rose 1% to $4,650.63 in early trading, extending a more-than-5% gain from the prior week and reaching three-month highs, as mounting U.S. fiscal concerns pushed investors toward hard assets. U.S. government debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a potential expansion of bond buyback programs — moves that pressured longer-dated yields and the dollar while renewing appetite for bullion. ANZ analysts noted that gold's climb above $4,500 has been supported by expectations that authorities will continue seeking to contain longer-term yields, with dollar weakness encouraging investors to increase bullion exposure.

Demand metrics reinforce the move: gold-backed ETFs recorded their largest single-day inflow since September 2025 and have logged net inflows for five consecutive weeks, while central-bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainty continue to provide a structural bid. Gold futures reached $4,706.89 and the metal cleared its 200-day moving average near $4,513, with the next technical resistance cited around $4,700 per ounce.

The Bank of England remains the world's preferred custodian for sovereign gold, with 57% of surveyed central banks storing reserves in London, followed by the New York Federal Reserve at 14%, according to a new analysis. Both locations are favored because gold held there sits within major settlement networks, allowing reserve managers to access dollar liquidity through swaps and generate income via leasing without requiring bars to be recertified at alternative facilities.

Central banks are increasingly spreading reserves across multiple jurisdictions as a geopolitical hedge — a trend Goldman Sachs links directly to the 2022 freezing of Russia's foreign reserves, which it expects to continue through 2026 and beyond. China is positioning itself as an emerging alternative custody center. In June 2026, 32 tonnes of monetary gold entered London in what Goldman Sachs characterized as a custody transfer rather than planned sales, with foreign official holdings at the Bank of England rising 98 tonnes that month. Central bank gold purchases also accelerated sharply, reaching 57 tonnes in June 2026 — more than three times the 17-tonne pre-2022 monthly average — with China identified as the largest single buyer at 40 tonnes.

Gold spot prices climbed to $4,399 per ounce — up 0.5% on the day — as a weakening U.S. Dollar Index, which fell 0.2% to 99.49, made the metal cheaper for foreign buyers. Fresh U.S. economic data reinforced the tailwind: consumer sentiment declined for the first time in three months and retail sales posted their steepest monthly contraction in more than a year, both readings that reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate increases. Central bank demand has remained a structural support, with institutions adding 244 tonnes in Q1 2026, the strongest quarterly pace since Q4 2024, while China alone purchased 8 tonnes in April.

The Middle East added a fresh layer of uncertainty after multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked last week, with some disabling satellite transponders to evade detection. Iran and Oman are in talks over a Hormuz management agreement — notably without U.S. participation — but the disruption has revived concerns over oil supply and the inflation path that would follow. ANZ, citing a sequence of persistent inflation, a Fed on hold, an energy-shock slowdown, and eventual monetary easing, forecasts gold reaching $5,200 per ounce by year-end.

With gold trading near historic highs around $4,437 per troy ounce, a comparison of the two dominant physical gold ETFs finds that the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) holds a meaningful edge for most buy-and-hold investors. IAU's 0.25% expense ratio undercuts State Street's SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) at 0.40%, and that 15-basis-point annual savings has compounded into slightly better long-term returns — a $1,000 investment five years ago would have grown to roughly $2,415 in IAU versus $2,398 in GLD, according to Yahoo Finance.

GLD still dominates by scale, holding $146 billion in assets against IAU's $64.2 billion, and its deeper daily trading volume makes it the preferred vehicle for institutional traders executing large positions. For everyday investors, however, the cost advantage of IAU is the deciding factor when both funds track the same underlying bullion price and carry near-identical volatility profiles (beta of 0.19 each).

Gold futures climbed to $4,383 per ounce on Tuesday for a third consecutive gain, reaching their strongest settlement since early June, as shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations lifted demand for the metal. An unexpected decline in July payrolls has moved rate markets closer to pricing a hold at the September 15–16 Fed meeting, reducing the opportunity cost of owning non-yielding gold. Analyst near-term targets cluster around $4,500, with more bullish scenarios pointing toward a retest of April–May highs near $4,800, supported by lower real yields, improved investor positioning, and persistent central-bank buying.

The outlook now hinges on two inflation readings: July CPI due Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. Capital Economics analyst Hamad Hussain cautioned that "a hotter-than-expected inflation print could justify the case for an interest rate hike at the Fed's next meeting and, as a result, put further downward pressure on gold prices." Rate markets remain divided between a 25-basis-point September hike and a hold, making this week's data the principal near-term swing factor for the metal.

Gold posted its strongest week in seven months, gaining approximately 7.4% as December futures broke through $4,400 — up from consolidation near $4,100. The move was triggered by a sharp macro reversal: the July jobs report showed the U.S. economy shed 23,000 positions against a consensus forecast for an 80,000 gain, while crude oil fell roughly 7% over the week, removing the inflationary pressure that had kept the Federal Reserve sounding hawkish since March. Together, those two developments collapsed expectations for a September rate hike and pushed the 2-year yield to a lower high against its 50-day moving average.

The macro shift is drawing fresh institutional interest. Central banks are purchasing gold at a pace 62% above year-ago levels, with China's central bank adding to stockpiles in Hong Kong as part of efforts to develop the city's bullion-trading infrastructure. CNBC Fast Money options trader Mike Khouw cited the reversal in rate expectations as his reasoning for adding to his gold position. ETF flows are beginning to turn positive but remain 2.1% below year-to-date levels, indicating retail participation has not yet caught up with the institutional move.

Barrick Mining and Newmont Corporation announced on August 10, 2026 that they have resolved all outstanding disputes related to their Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) joint venture. Under the agreement, Barrick will contribute its Fourmile development and Newmont will contribute its Fiberline and Mike development properties into the venture, with Newmont paying Barrick $1.95 billion to reflect the relative value of the assets contributed by each party. The deal also introduces enhanced governance provisions under a modernized joint venture agreement.

As part of the settlement, Newmont has consented to Barrick's proposed initial public offering of its North American gold assets, which had been contingent on resolving the longstanding joint venture disputes. Both companies stated that the arrangement positions them to maximize the value of Nevada Gold Mines and continue collaboration on safety, operational performance, and long-term growth of what is one of the world's largest gold-producing operations.