SpaceX (SPCX) on Solana

Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight rating on SpaceX on September 23, according to CNBC's roundup of Wednesday's top Wall Street analyst calls. The roundup did not include a price target. The note looked at SpaceX's direct-to-cell satellite ambitions and concluded that the company is not a likely threat to the major U.S. wireless carriers right now.

The analysts pointed to spectrum limits as the main constraint: "we believe SpaceX will have limited ability to access significant swaths of critical mid-band spectrum in urban areas." They added that "the lack of an imminent threat to the Big 3's core markets could mean that any potential MVNO agreement may not happen until several years from now." In practice, the firm expects any deal for SpaceX to operate as a mobile virtual network operator on a carrier network to be years away, even as it stays positive on the stock.

NASA has awarded SpaceX a $946 million modification to its Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contract, covering three additional crewed missions to the International Space Station — Crew-15, Crew-16, and Crew-17. The award brings SpaceX's total funded flights under the program to 17 and raises the cumulative contract value to $5.92 billion. Missions are targeted for readiness in 2027 and 2028, with performance extending through 2030, using SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket.

NASA established the CCtCap contracts with SpaceX and Boeing in 2014. SpaceX completed certification for crewed flights in November 2020 and has since become the agency's primary crew transportation provider; Crew-12 is currently in orbit. The latest modification follows a May notice of intent and maintains dual commercial access to the station, with NASA reserving the right to pursue further contract modifications for additional transportation services as needed.

NASA has selected SpaceX to provide launch services for the StarBurst satellite mission, a NASA Astrophysics Pioneers Program effort designed to probe short gamma-ray bursts produced by neutron star mergers. The satellite will fly aboard a Falcon 9 rocket via SpaceX's Bandwagon rideshare program from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, no earlier than 2028.

The contract is a firm-fixed-price task order issued through NASA's Kennedy Space Center Launch Services Program under the Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) program — a 10-year indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity vehicle with a $1 billion ceiling across all participating contractors. SPCX shares gained roughly 3% during Thursday's session and edged up an additional 0.2% in after-hours trading following the announcement.

Valor Equity Partners distributed approximately $8.5 billion worth of SpaceX shares to its limited partners through an in-kind transfer, moving the stock directly to fund investors rather than selling it on the secondary market. Valor noted it retains a meaningful position in SpaceX following the transaction, signaling continued conviction in the company despite broadening the shareholder base significantly.

SpaceX, which operates the Starlink satellite broadband network alongside launch services and AI infrastructure, carries a reported market capitalization of roughly $1.9 trillion. The distribution widens ownership from a single institutional holder to a larger pool of limited partners, though analysts note some uncertainty over whether those new shareholders will maintain the same long-term commitment as the original backer—a factor that could influence how SpaceX finances its capital-intensive expansion plans.

SpaceX has closed its fourth major AI hosting contract, with the unnamed customer deal generating approximately $1.11 billion in monthly revenue starting December 1, 2026. Combined with previously disclosed agreements — including deals with Anthropic at roughly $1.25 billion per month and Google at around $920 million per month — SpaceX's disclosed AI hosting revenue reaches approximately $3.28 billion per month, or over $39 billion annualized. CFO Bret Johnsen said the new contract increases the company's confidence in hitting its $100 billion annual recurring revenue target by year-end 2026, up from roughly $31 billion annualized as of Q2.

SpaceX is pricing its AI hosting capacity at $30–$50 per watt, a model that the company says can deliver payback periods under one year for some projects. The company plans to scale from 2 gigawatts of capacity by end-2026 to 5–10 gigawatts in 2027, putting it in direct competition with established data center operators. Analyst price targets on SPCX shares diverge sharply — Morningstar places fair value at $62 while Pivotal Research and JPMorgan carry targets of $220 and $240, respectively — reflecting ongoing debate about how quickly the AI hosting revenue ramp will translate into durable value.