Polymarket

Polymarket is a prediction market: a site where you buy and sell shares in what will happen next. A share pays $1 if its outcome comes true and nothing if it doesn't. So the price is the crowd's guess at the odds. A YES share at 30 cents means traders see about a 30% chance.

You can trade on elections, sports, the economy, crypto prices and world news. The main app runs on the Polygon blockchain. You can fund it from Solana, or trade its markets inside Jupiter. Americans now have their own app, Polymarket US.

How Polymarket works: YES/NO shares, odds and the order book

Each market is a question with an end date, such as "Will the Fed raise rates in September?" When it ends, winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay nothing. A YES and a NO share always add up to $1, so the YES price reads as a chance in percent.

You trade with other people. No bookmaker sets the odds. Polymarket matches buyers and sellers in an order book, like a stock exchange. You can set your own price or take the best one on offer.

Here is how it plays out. Say you buy 100 YES shares at 40 cents. That costs $40, plus any fee. If the event happens, you get $100. If not, you lose the $40. You can also sell early at the going price to lock in a gain or cut a loss.

On the global app, trades settle on Polygon in pUSD, Polymarket's own dollar token. The docs say each pUSD is backed one-to-one by USDC held in a smart contract. Your shares sit in a wallet you control, so Polymarket does not hold your money between trades.

Who decides the outcome: Polymarket's UMA oracle

Markets on the global app are settled by UMA, an outside system where anyone can propose the answer and anyone can challenge it. If nobody objects within two hours, the answer stands and winners can cash out.

This matters if you hold a position near the end. Per Polymarket's resolution docs, whoever proposes an answer puts up a deposit of about $750. A challenger must put one up too. A second challenge sends the question to a vote of UMA token holders, which takes about two days. The losing side forfeits its deposit.

Polymarket can also add notes to a market's rules after trading starts, to clear up a vague question. Those notes can change how a market you hold is judged. Read the full rules before you trade, not only the headline.

Polymarket on Solana: SOL deposits and Jupiter Predict

Polymarket links to Solana in two ways. You can deposit from a Solana wallet into the main app. Or you can trade Polymarket markets inside Jupiter's Predict tab and never leave Solana.

Solana deposits arrived in March 2025. The deposit docs list SOL, USDC, USDT, USDe and TRUMP, with a $2 minimum. Your deposit is swapped into pUSD on Polygon. You can withdraw back to Solana later.

Jupiter JUP$0.240-5.8% added Polymarket markets to Jup Predict in February 2026. The tab already had Kalshi markets. In June 2026 Jupiter launched Forecast, its own prediction market, in the same tab. Jupiter said the products will sit side by side.

Two points often get mixed up. The $35 million deal announced with the Jupiter tie-up was ParaFi Capital investing in Jupiter. Polymarket got none of it. And Polymarket's contracts still live on Polygon. Solana is a way in, and a place to trade through Jupiter.

To automate trades, see our guide to using an AI agent with Polymarket on Solana.

Polymarket US vs the global Polymarket app

Polymarket runs two separate apps. The global app at polymarket.com uses crypto and blocks US users. Polymarket US is a federally licensed exchange for Americans, and it takes dollars.

Polymarket US runs as QCX, an exchange Polymarket bought for $112 million in July 2025. The CFTC, the US futures watchdog, widened its licence in November 2025. The US app opened on 3 December 2025. US trades go through licensed brokers, who check your identity and hold your funds.

Balances do not move between the two apps. A market may exist on one and not the other.

Polymarket fees and maker rebates

On the global app, only takers pay a fee. Makers, whose orders wait on the book, pay nothing. World events markets are free to trade. Polymarket does not charge for USDC deposits or withdrawals, though bridges and exchanges may.

The fee is highest when a share costs 50 cents and shrinks toward 0 or $1. Per the fee docs in October 2026, the formula is shares × rate × price × (1 − price). The rate depends on the market type:

So 100 sports shares at 50 cents cost $50, and the fee is $1.25. The same order at 90 cents pays about 45 cents in fees. Part of the fee money goes back to traders as daily rebates.

Polymarket US has its own fee list, so check it separately.

Polymarket Perps: perpetual futures on crypto and stocks

Polymarket added perpetual futures in 2026, after announcing them in April. A perp lets you bet on a price going up or down, with borrowed money, and it has no end date. Decrypt reported markets on crypto such as Bitcoin, plus stocks and gold.

The perps docs say you fund the account with pUSD on Polygon, with a 10 pUSD minimum. Taker fees run from 0.02% to 0.04%, falling as your 30-day volume grows.

Borrowed money cuts both ways. A small move against you can wipe out your margin. With a YES/NO share, the most you can lose is what you paid.

Is Polymarket legit and safe? Risks, audits and controversies

Polymarket is a real, well-funded company that pays out winning shares. Trading on it is still risky. The main risks are losing to better-informed traders, bad settlements, code bugs, and lawsuits against the company.

Most traders lose. A 2026 study by Yale and London Business School researchers found about 3% of accounts were skilled winners who took a big share of profits. Two-thirds of accounts bore all the net losses. We covered the Yale findings in September 2026.

Insiders trade here too. The CFTC opened at least three insider trading probes into Polymarket bets between May and July 2026. They cover Biden pardons, Iran and Google search rankings. Our report on the probes has more.

Settlement can go wrong. In March 2025, a market on a US-Ukraine minerals deal settled YES though no deal had happened. Polymarket blamed a large UMA voter and did not refund traders.

Marketing has drawn fire. In June 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported that paid creators posted fake wins made on copies of Polymarket's site. Polymarket said it was reviewing its promotions.

Volume numbers need care. In October 2026, Wired found over $600 million traded on two offshore election markets after the races had ended. Much of it was pairs of accounts trading with each other. We covered similar questions about long-shot trading.

On the code side, the contracts page lists 2026 audits by Cantina, Quantstamp, Certora, Sigma Prime, Zellic and Pashov. They cover parts including version 1.2.0 and the oracle system. Several core contracts can be upgraded after launch, and the docs do not say who holds that power. Cantina runs the bug bounty.

Is Polymarket legal? State lawsuits and the CFTC

Polymarket US is legal under US federal law. It holds a CFTC licence. But some states and cities say its sports and event bets are illegal gambling. The global app is closed to US users, and many other countries block it.

New York's governor and attorney general sued Polymarket US on 24 September 2026. They say it runs an unlicensed gambling business that let in users under 21. Polymarket moved the case to federal court that day and sued New York's officials, arguing federal law applies. Our New York lawsuit report follows the case.

Baltimore sued Polymarket and Kalshi in August 2026 over sports bets. That month, the Financial Times also reported that JPMorgan cut its banking ties with Polymarket in October 2025. We reported both in one story.

Outside the US, Wikipedia lists blocks or bans in France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, Australia, the Netherlands and others. Check your own country's rules before you sign up.

Who Polymarket is for, and does anyone make money on it?

Polymarket suits people who follow a topic closely, like politics, a sport or crypto, and want to put money they can afford to lose behind their view. It is a poor fit if you want steady income or a hands-off investment.

The global app suits crypto users outside the US and blocked countries who are happy to manage their own wallet. If your funds are on Solana, you can deposit directly or stay inside Jupiter.

Polymarket US suits Americans who want to pay in dollars through a licensed broker and don't mind ID checks.

Some traders do make big sums, often from better information or from acting as market makers. The Yale-led study suggests they are a small group. If you have no edge, assume fees and spreads work against you.

Plenty of people never trade at all. They use Polymarket as a free, live read on the odds of news events. Many news sites, ours included, quote its prices.

Polymarket vs Kalshi, Jupiter Forecast and other alternatives

Kalshi is Polymarket's main rival. Both hold US licences from the CFTC. Kalshi began as a US exchange that takes dollars. Polymarket began as a global crypto app and added a US arm later. Pick based on where you live, how you want to pay, and which markets you want.

Kalshi takes US bank deposits. Polymarket's global app takes crypto, including from Solana. It is known for deep markets on world politics, crypto and culture. Fees are close, so compare prices on the exact market before you trade.

On Solana, Jupiter's Predict tab shows Polymarket, Kalshi and Jupiter's own Forecast markets in one place. It is the easy route if your funds are on Solana and you don't want to move them to another chain.

Polymarket valuation, funding and the POLY token airdrop

A round led by 1789 Capital valued Polymarket at $21 billion, Bloomberg reported on 31 August 2026. Donald Trump Jr. is a partner at 1789 Capital. Trump Jr. also advises Polymarket. Our funding report has more.

The value has climbed fast. In October 2025, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, agreed to invest up to $2 billion. Earlier backers include Founders Fund and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who joined rounds in 2024.

There is no Polymarket token yet. The chief marketing officer said in October 2025: "There will be a token, there will be an airdrop." The parent company filed POLY trademarks in February 2026. By mid-October 2026, no launch date or rules had been announced. Treat any "POLY" token for sale as fake unless Polymarket itself announces it.

Founder Shayne Coplan and Polymarket's road back to the US

Shayne Coplan founded Polymarket in 2020 and is still its CEO. The parent company is Blockratize Inc.

In January 2022, the CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for offering unregistered bets, and Polymarket shut out US users. In November 2024, the FBI searched Coplan's home. US prosecutors and the CFTC closed their cases in July 2025 with no new charges.

That opened the way back. Polymarket bought QCX in July 2025, won a wider CFTC licence that November, and launched Polymarket US in December 2025. In 2026 it added perps and raised money at a much higher value.