Crypto Is At An Inflection Point: Ryan Connor's Insights on Solana's Future

In a recent episode of the Lightspeed podcast, host Jack sat down with Ryan Connor, Head of Research at Blockworks Research, to discuss the current state of crypto and what's next for Solana. The conversation, which took place at the Digital Asset Summit 2025, covered a wide range of topics including meme coins, the rise of DEX volume, token valuation, and emerging narratives in the crypto space.

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The Meme Coin Landscape on Solana

The discussion kicked off with breaking news about Raydium, a prominent automated market maker (AMM) in the Solana ecosystem, announcing the launch of its own fork of pump.fun, a popular meme coin launchpad. This move comes in response to pump.fun's decision to develop its own AMM, effectively ending an informal relationship between the two platforms.

Ryan Connor shared his insights on this development, emphasizing the importance of the front-end user experience in the meme coin space:

"I think it all depends on where, who has the front end of meme coins today? I think that's actually the most important piece. It's not clear to me that any one [platform] ... owns that relationship."

Connor pointed out that the meme coin discovery process is currently fragmented, with users finding contract addresses through various channels and then using different platforms to trade. This fragmentation presents an opportunity for disruption in the market.

The Rise of DEX Volume

One of the most significant revelations from the conversation was the unprecedented growth in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume over the past year. Connor highlighted this remarkable statistic:

"Over the last 12 months, there was more DEX volume than in the history of crypto in just the last 12 months."

This surge in DEX usage represents a critical inflection point for the crypto industry, potentially solidifying the positions of incumbent platforms and protocols. Connor drew parallels to historical inflection points in other technology sectors, such as the PC market in the mid-1990s and the search market in the early 2000s, where increased usage cemented the dominance of key players like Microsoft and Google.

Incumbency Advantage in the Solana Ecosystem

The conversation turned to the potential incumbency advantage for established projects within the Solana ecosystem. Connor expressed confidence in the commercial orientation of the Solana community, which he believes gives it a natural advantage in capital markets and commerce.

When asked about specific projects that might benefit from this incumbency advantage, Connor highlighted Jupiter and Jito:

"Jupiter's really interesting spot. It's like great UX. It aggregates all the things that you need. It has a fantastic product suite. Multi-product DeFi is something that most of crypto has slept on for a long time."

Regarding Jito, Connor noted its deep integration within the Solana ecosystem and its potential for significant revenue generation:

"We think they're going to generate $150 million in revenue over the next 12 months. We don't see much competition in the block builder space."

The Stablecoin Conundrum

A significant portion of the discussion was dedicated to the topic of stablecoins, which Connor noted was a major focus at the conference. While stablecoins are often touted as a solution for reducing transaction costs, Connor presented a more nuanced view:

"I think that crypto gets stablecoins wrong, at least in the way that common CT narrative. I think the core of stablecoins don't really help a bank reduce costs."

Instead, Connor emphasized the profitability aspect of stablecoins, particularly for startups like Tether and Circle that can capitalize on high net interest margins. However, he also pointed out the challenges for investors looking to gain exposure to this market, as many of the most profitable stablecoin issuers are not publicly tradable.

The Future of Deep Tech in Crypto

Connor expressed optimism about the potential for deep tech projects in the crypto space, particularly those that generate revenue from sources not directly tied to crypto market cycles. He mentioned projects like Helium and GeoNet as examples of businesses building stable revenue streams:

"If you pay helium for your cell phone plan, the people paying helium for the cell phone plan will not stop paying when crypto markets go down, right? They're just going to keep paying for their cell phone plan."

While acknowledging that many deep tech projects are still in their early stages, Connor suggested that over the next two years, some of these projects could reach annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the range of $30-50 million.

The Persistence of Meme Coins

Despite popular narratives suggesting the decline of meme coins, Connor presented data challenging this perception. Using revenue and fee data from the Blockworks Research analytics platform, he revealed:

"At the height of the meme coin bubble or meme coin activity, pump fund represented 17% of all revenue in crypto. Pump fund is now dead and it represents 12% of all revenue in crypto."

This data suggests that while meme coin activity may have decreased, it remains a significant portion of overall crypto revenue, comparable to the performance of established DeFi protocols.

The Importance of Data-Driven Narratives

Throughout the conversation, Connor emphasized the critical role of data in shaping accurate narratives within the crypto industry. He highlighted how access to comprehensive revenue and fee data can challenge prevailing assumptions and provide a more nuanced understanding of market trends.

"Narrative dominates the conversation. And often narrative is nonsense. It's just a game of phone and we're all just making things up and trying to, whatever, try to push a narrative."

By leveraging data from platforms like Blockworks Research Analytics, investors and analysts can make more informed decisions and develop a clearer picture of the crypto landscape.

The Inflection Point in Crypto Adoption

A key theme throughout the discussion was the idea that crypto is approaching a significant inflection point in terms of adoption and institutional involvement. Connor predicted that 2025 and 2026 would be pivotal years for the industry, driven by regulatory clarity and an influx of capital from traditional finance:

"You're going to have that moment where that flood of capital comes to crypto and it's going to use the things that have the most usage. And potentially solidify like their positions as the dominant protocols."

This perspective underscores the importance of established projects and protocols in the Solana ecosystem, which may be well-positioned to capitalize on this incoming wave of adoption.

The Role of Commercial Orientation in Crypto Success

Connor repeatedly emphasized the importance of commercial orientation in determining the success of crypto projects. He praised the Solana ecosystem for its focus on building for customers rather than ideology:

"Solana is commercially oriented. It has a culture of commercial orientation. It's been very evident since I've started following the ecosystem in 2021, they were thinking about crypto differently than other blockchains, blockchain communities that are much more politically oriented, that are building for an ideology rather than a customer."

This customer-centric approach, according to Connor, gives Solana and its associated projects a significant advantage as the crypto industry matures and attracts more mainstream attention.

The Potential for Solana-Based ETFs

An interesting point raised during the discussion was the potential for Solana-based ETFs, particularly leveraging liquid staking tokens like Jito SOL. Connor noted:

"I think it's also something of an open secret that Jito SOL will essentially be an ETF because LSTs actually solve some of your issues with adding staking awards to an ETF, which is what Solana is pushing for."

This development could represent a significant step forward in bridging the gap between traditional finance and the Solana ecosystem, potentially attracting a new wave of institutional investment.

The Challenges and Opportunities in Stablecoin Markets

While discussing the stablecoin landscape, Connor highlighted both the challenges and opportunities present in this sector. He noted the difficulty for traditional financial institutions to compete with nimble startups like Tether and Circle:

"These big banks don't want to take that risk. They're going to be late to the game. I think that's the interesting thing about stables."

However, he also pointed out the potential for competition to erode the high profit margins currently enjoyed by stablecoin issuers:

"The moment that banks do catch on and credit card companies and Robinhood and whatever starts launching stablecoins, it's kind of over for Tether's halcyon days."

The Growing Importance of Multi-Product DeFi Strategies

Connor emphasized the increasing significance of multi-product strategies in the DeFi space, using Jupiter as an example of successful execution in this area:

"Multi-product DeFi is something that most of crypto has slept on for a long time and only within the last 12 months, are teams trying it and it's so obvious. Look at any bank on planet Earth. It does more than one thing."

This trend towards comprehensive DeFi platforms could reshape the competitive landscape within the Solana ecosystem and the broader crypto industry.

The Emergence of Stable Revenue Streams in Crypto

One of the most promising developments discussed was the emergence of crypto projects generating stable revenue streams not directly tied to crypto market cycles. Connor highlighted examples such as Helium and GeoNet:

"The people who are paying those companies for those services, who they're generating revenue from, those revenues are not tethered to crypto markets."

This trend towards more stable, recurring revenue models could significantly enhance the appeal of certain crypto projects to traditional investors and institutions.

The Challenge of Tokenization for Traditional Businesses

Connor touched on the hurdles faced by crypto projects when engaging with traditional businesses, particularly regarding the acceptance of tokens:

"One big hurdle, I think is just getting the customer comfortable that you have a token. And that's way harder 12 months ago than it is today. And I think 12 months forward, it's way easier."

This observation suggests that as familiarity with crypto tokens increases in the broader business world, adoption of tokenized business models may accelerate.

The Importance of Data in Challenging Crypto Narratives

Throughout the discussion, Connor repeatedly emphasized the critical role of data in shaping accurate narratives within the crypto industry:

"Data is missing in crypto and narrative dominates the conversation. And often narrative is nonsense. It's just a game of phone and we're all just making things up and trying to, whatever, try to push a narrative."

By leveraging comprehensive data from platforms like Blockworks Research Analytics, investors and analysts can make more informed decisions and develop a clearer picture of the crypto landscape.

The Resilience of Meme Coin Activity

Despite popular narratives suggesting the decline of meme coins, Connor presented data challenging this perception:

"Pump fund is now dead and it represents 12% of all revenue in crypto. So like for the folks who are saying like meme coins are dead, like why is Aave and Uniswap revenue down in the same percentage terms as pump fund revenue?"

This data suggests that while meme coin activity may have decreased, it remains a significant portion of overall crypto revenue, comparable to the performance of established DeFi protocols.

The Potential for Deep Tech Projects in Crypto

Connor expressed optimism about the future of deep tech projects in the crypto space, particularly those generating revenue from sources not directly tied to crypto market cycles:

"I think over the next two years, you probably see like, I don't know, maybe like 30 million ARR out of some of these deep techs. 50. I don't know. And things get really exciting then because it's stable and it doesn't look like crypto."

This trend towards more stable, diversified revenue streams could significantly enhance the appeal of certain crypto projects to traditional investors and institutions.

The Importance of Commercial Orientation in Crypto Success

Throughout the discussion, Connor emphasized the critical role of commercial orientation in determining the success of crypto projects. He praised the Solana ecosystem for its focus on building for customers rather than ideology:

"Solana is commercially oriented. It has a culture of commercial orientation. It's been very evident since I've started following the ecosystem in 2021, they were thinking about crypto differently than other blockchains, blockchain communities that are much more politically oriented, that are building for an ideology rather than a customer."

This customer-centric approach, according to Connor, gives Solana and its associated projects a significant advantage as the crypto industry matures and attracts more mainstream attention.

The Potential for Solana-Based ETFs

An interesting point raised during the discussion was the potential for Solana-based ETFs, particularly leveraging liquid staking tokens like Jito SOL:

"I think it's also something of an open secret that Jito SOL will essentially be an ETF because LSTs actually solve some of your issues with adding staking awards to an ETF, which is what Solana is pushing for."

This development could represent a significant step forward in bridging the gap between traditional finance and the Solana ecosystem, potentially attracting a new wave of institutional investment.

The Evolution of Stablecoin Markets

While discussing the stablecoin landscape, Connor highlighted both the challenges and opportunities present in this sector. He noted the difficulty for traditional financial institutions to compete with nimble startups like Tether and Circle:

"These big banks don't want to take that risk. They're going to be late to the game. I think that's the interesting thing about stables."

However, he also pointed out the potential for competition to erode the high profit margins currently enjoyed by stablecoin issuers, suggesting that the stablecoin market may be on the cusp of significant changes.

The Growing Importance of Multi-Product DeFi Strategies

Connor emphasized the increasing significance of multi-product strategies in the DeFi space, using Jupiter as an example of successful execution in this area:

"Multi-product DeFi is something that most of crypto has slept on for a long time and only within the last 12 months, are teams trying it and it's so obvious. Look at any bank on planet Earth. It does more than one thing."

This trend towards comprehensive DeFi platforms could reshape the competitive landscape within the Solana ecosystem and the broader crypto industry.

The Challenge of Tokenization for Traditional Businesses

Connor touched on the hurdles faced by crypto projects when engaging with traditional businesses, particularly regarding the acceptance of tokens:

"One big hurdle, I think is just getting the customer comfortable that you have a token. And that's way harder 12 months ago than it is today. And I think 12 months forward, it's way easier."

This observation suggests that as familiarity with crypto tokens increases in the broader business world, adoption of tokenized business models may accelerate.

The Role of Regulation in Crypto Adoption

Connor highlighted the importance of regulatory clarity in driving the next wave of crypto adoption, particularly from institutional investors:

"They actually need to see the laws changed. Like there's been signaling that the laws are going to change, but they actually need to see the government defined like is a token. Okay, via the market structure, via the market structure bill, is there going to be a sandbox, et cetera?"

This regulatory clarity, expected within the next 24 months, could catalyze a significant influx of capital into the crypto markets, potentially solidifying the positions of established protocols and platforms.

The Importance of Network Effects in Crypto

Throughout the discussion, Connor emphasized the critical role of network effects in determining success within the crypto industry:

"It's a network. It's a networks affects business. It's a liquidity driven business. When you go to trade, you go to trade where the action is. So like it's just like a natural funnel to the places that are already in the lead."

This perspective underscores the potential advantage held by established projects and protocols within the Solana ecosystem as the industry approaches its next phase of growth.

The Future of Deep Tech in Crypto

Connor expressed optimism about the potential for deep tech projects in the crypto space, particularly those that generate revenue from sources not directly tied to crypto market cycles. He mentioned projects like Helium and GeoNet as examples of businesses building stable revenue streams:

"The people who are paying those companies for those services, who they're generating revenue from, those revenues are not tethered to crypto markets."

While acknowledging that many deep tech projects are still in their early stages, Connor suggested that over the next two years, some of these projects could reach annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the range of $30-50 million, representing a significant maturation of the crypto industry.

In conclusion, the conversation between Jack and Ryan Connor provided a comprehensive overview of the current state and future prospects of the crypto industry, with a particular focus on the Solana ecosystem. From the resilience of meme coins to the potential of deep tech projects and the importance of data-driven decision-making, the discussion highlighted the complex and rapidly evolving nature of the crypto landscape. As the industry approaches what Connor believes to be a critical inflection point in 2025-2026, the insights shared in this conversation offer valuable guidance for investors, developers, and enthusiasts navigating the exciting world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.

Facts + Figures

• Raydium, a prominent AMM in the Solana ecosystem, is launching its own fork of pump.fun, a popular meme coin launchpad.
• DEX volume in the last 12 months exceeded the total DEX volume in the entire history of crypto prior to that period.
• At its peak, pump.fun represented 17% of all revenue in crypto; it now represents 12% of all crypto revenue.
• Jito is projected to generate $150 million in revenue over the next 12 months.
• Since the Libra collapse, pump.fun has generated $48 million in revenue, compared to $24 million generated by all apps on the Base network combined.
• GeoNet is reported to have an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $2-3 million.
• HiveMapper is estimated to have an ARR of $3-5 million.
• Some energy-focused deep tech projects in crypto are reported to have similar revenue numbers to GeoNet and HiveMapper.
• The years 2025 and 2026 are predicted to be a significant inflection point for crypto adoption and institutional involvement.
• Regulatory clarity, including the potential passage of a market structure bill, is expected within the next 24 months.
• Multi-product DeFi strategies have only become a focus for crypto teams in the last 12 months.
• The challenge of getting traditional businesses comfortable with tokens has decreased over the past 12 months and is expected to continue improving.
• Deep tech crypto projects are projected to potentially reach $30-50 million in ARR over the next two years.
• Stablecoin issuers like Tether are currently profiting from high net interest margins, earning around 4.5% on invested funds.
• The crypto industry is moving towards more stable, recurring revenue models not directly tied to crypto market cycles.

Questions Answered

What is the current state of meme coins in the crypto market?

Contrary to popular belief that meme coins are dead, data shows they still represent a significant portion of crypto revenue. Pump.fun, a major meme coin platform, currently accounts for 12% of all crypto revenue, down from 17% at its peak. This suggests that while meme coin activity has decreased, it remains a substantial part of the crypto ecosystem, comparable to established DeFi protocols.

How has DEX volume changed in recent times?

DEX volume has seen unprecedented growth, with more volume occurring in the last 12 months than in the entire history of crypto prior to that period. This surge in DEX usage represents a critical inflection point for the crypto industry, potentially solidifying the positions of incumbent platforms and protocols.

What advantages does Solana have in the current crypto landscape?

Solana's main advantage lies in its commercial orientation and focus on building for customers rather than ideology. This approach gives Solana and its associated projects a significant edge as the crypto industry matures and attracts more mainstream attention. The ecosystem's culture of commercial orientation has been evident since 2021, setting it apart from other blockchain communities that are more politically oriented.

How are stablecoins impacting the crypto market?

Stablecoins are currently a major topic of discussion in the crypto industry. While they don't necessarily help banks reduce costs as commonly believed, they offer high profitability for issuers like Tether and Circle due to significant net interest margins. However, this profitability may be challenged as traditional financial institutions and tech companies enter the stablecoin market, potentially eroding the current high margins.

What is the potential for deep tech projects in the crypto space?

Deep tech projects in crypto show promise, particularly those generating revenue from sources not directly tied to crypto market cycles. Examples include Helium for cell phone plans and GeoNet for precision agriculture. While many of these projects are still in early stages, some are projected to reach annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $30-50 million over the next two years, representing a significant maturation of the crypto industry.

How important is data in shaping crypto narratives?

Data plays a crucial role in challenging and shaping accurate narratives within the crypto industry. Access to comprehensive revenue and fee data can help investors and analysts make more informed decisions and develop a clearer picture of market trends. Platforms like Blockworks Research Analytics are instrumental in providing this data-driven perspective, countering often misleading narrative-driven discussions in the crypto space.

When is the next major inflection point expected for crypto adoption?

The years 2025 and 2026 are predicted to be a significant inflection point for crypto adoption and institutional involvement. This is expected to be driven by regulatory clarity, including the potential passage of a market structure bill, which is anticipated within the next 24 months. This clarity could catalyze a significant influx of capital into the crypto markets, potentially solidifying the positions of established protocols and platforms.

How are multi-product DeFi strategies evolving in the crypto space?

Multi-product DeFi strategies have become a focus for crypto teams only in the last 12 months. This trend towards comprehensive DeFi platforms, similar to traditional banks offering multiple services, could reshape the competitive landscape within the Solana ecosystem and the broader crypto industry. Projects like Jupiter are cited as examples of successful execution in this area.

What challenges do crypto projects face when engaging with traditional businesses?

One of the main hurdles for crypto projects engaging with traditional businesses is getting customers comfortable with the concept of tokens. However, this challenge has decreased over the past 12 months and is expected to continue improving. As familiarity with crypto tokens increases in the broader business world, adoption of tokenized business models may accelerate.

How might Solana-based ETFs impact the ecosystem?

There's potential for Solana-based ETFs, particularly leveraging liquid staking tokens like Jito SOL. These ETFs could solve issues related to adding staking rewards to traditional ETF structures. This development could represent a significant step forward in bridging the gap between traditional finance and the Solana ecosystem, potentially attracting a new wave of institutional investment.