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Exploring Futarchy: Governance by Markets with MetaDAO's Proph3t

By Solfate

Published on 2024-06-25

Discover how Futarchy and MetaDAO are revolutionizing decision-making through market-based governance on Solana. Learn about this groundbreaking experiment in decentralized organization.

The notes below are AI generated and may not be 100% accurate. Watch the video to be sure!

Exploring Futarchy: Governance by Markets with MetaDAO's Proph3t

In a fascinating episode of the Solfate Podcast, hosts James and Nick delve into the revolutionary concept of Futarchy with the anonymous founder of MetaDAO, known as Proph3t. This groundbreaking approach to governance, built on the Solana blockchain, promises to reshape how organizations make decisions by leveraging the power of markets.

What is Futarchy?

Futarchy is a novel form of governance that relies on markets to make decisions. Unlike traditional governance models such as democracy, dictatorship, or committee-based decision-making, Futarchy uses market mechanisms to determine the best course of action for an organization.

The core idea behind Futarchy is simple yet powerful: for every decision, two conditional markets are created. These markets allow participants to trade on the potential outcomes of a proposal, with the market prices serving as a prediction of the proposal's impact on a reference asset. This approach aims to harness the collective wisdom and incentives of market participants to make more efficient and effective decisions.

The Genesis of MetaDAO

Proph3t's journey to Futarchy began with frustration over traditional DAO governance models. Having worked in the Ethereum DeFi space, he witnessed firsthand the shortcomings of existing governance systems, where decisions were often made for the wrong reasons and treasury funds were misused.

Upon discovering Futarchy through a YouTube video, Proph3t was immediately captivated by its potential to solve governance problems not just in crypto, but in the broader world. Recognizing that no one had fully implemented Futarchy before, he decided to drop everything and focus on building MetaDAO to bring this concept to life.

Why Solana?

While Proph3t's background was in Ethereum, he made the bold decision to build MetaDAO on Solana. This choice was driven by his belief that Solana was the "best chain" available, offering superior performance and scalability compared to other blockchain platforms.

The timing of MetaDAO's launch on Solana is noteworthy. Proph3t published the MetaDAO whitepaper on November 10, 2022, just two days after the FTX collapse. Despite the challenging market conditions, he saw this as an opportunity to build and contribute to the Solana ecosystem during a critical time.

The Vision for MetaDAO

MetaDAO aims to create a new type of decentralized organization that operates as an amalgamation of autonomous startups leveraging common assets. This vision goes beyond simply implementing Futarchy as a governance mechanism; it seeks to reimagine how large organizations can coordinate and allocate resources efficiently.

Proph3t explains that traditional companies benefit from economies of scale and scope, but they often suffer from bureaucratic inefficiencies. MetaDAO's approach allows for a flat organizational structure where entrepreneurs can build startups that leverage the common assets of the DAO, such as brand recognition, without the need for a traditional hierarchical management system.

How Futarchy Works in Practice

In the MetaDAO implementation of Futarchy, decisions are made based on their predicted impact on the price of the native token, META. For each proposal, two conditional markets are created:

  1. A market for the token price if the proposal passes
  2. A market for the token price if the proposal fails

Participants can trade in these markets, effectively betting on the outcome they believe will be most beneficial for the organization. If the price in the "pass" market is higher than the "fail" market, the proposal is executed. This mechanism aligns the incentives of participants with the long-term success of the organization.

The Current State of MetaDAO

Proph3t describes MetaDAO as being in its "infant stage" or "pre-seed" phase in startup terms. While the vision for MetaDAO is ambitious, the current focus is on refining and improving the basic implementation of Futarchy.

Some of the challenges being addressed include:

  • Improving liquidity in the markets
  • Moving to an AMM-based system
  • Fixing technical issues related to key operations

Despite these challenges, MetaDAO has already seen significant interest from other DAOs looking to implement Futarchy, suggesting potential product-market fit if executed well.

The Benefits of Market-Based Governance

Proph3t argues that market-based governance offers several advantages over traditional voting systems:

  1. Efficient information aggregation: Markets are generally more efficient at processing information than individual voters or experts.
  2. Incentive alignment: Participants have a financial stake in the outcome, encouraging more thoughtful decision-making.
  3. Quantifiable impact: Market prices provide a clear measure of a proposal's expected value.
  4. Resistance to manipulation: Attempts to manipulate markets often backfire, as demonstrated by a real example from MetaDAO's history.

Empirical Evidence Supporting Futarchy

To support the case for Futarchy, Proph3t cites several examples where markets have outperformed traditional decision-making methods:

  • Presidential prediction markets have been more accurate than expert pollsters in forecasting election outcomes.
  • Google and HP successfully used internal prediction markets to make business forecasts, outperforming their previous expert-based systems.
  • In 1984, financial markets correctly identified the cause of the Challenger space shuttle disaster within 14 minutes, while it took the government four months to reach the same conclusion.

These examples demonstrate the potential for market-based systems to aggregate information and make accurate predictions more quickly and effectively than traditional methods.

Challenges and Limitations

While the potential of Futarchy is exciting, Proph3t acknowledges several challenges that need to be addressed:

  • Throughput and latency: Current implementations on Solana face limitations in terms of how many decisions can be processed and how quickly.
  • Liquidity: Ensuring sufficient liquidity in the conditional markets is crucial for accurate pricing.
  • Incentives for participation: Unlike traditional financial markets, conditional markets may require additional incentives to encourage participation.

Proph3t and the MetaDAO team are actively working on solutions to these challenges, with the goal of making Futarchy more scalable and efficient.

The Potential Impact of Futarchy

Proph3t believes that Futarchy has the potential to reshape not just corporate governance, but potentially even political systems. By providing a more efficient and manipulation-resistant method of decision-making, Futarchy could address many of the shortcomings of current democratic and bureaucratic processes.

While Proph3t is optimistic about Futarchy's potential, he maintains a pragmatic outlook. He estimates the probability of Futarchy "totally working and reshaping a lot of stuff" to be between 50% and 80%, acknowledging the experimental nature of the project and the challenges that lie ahead.

Participating in the Futarchy Experiment

For those interested in experiencing Futarchy firsthand, MetaDAO offers an opportunity to participate in this groundbreaking governance experiment. Proph3t encourages listeners to consider the potential impact of their work and invites them to contribute to shaping the future of governance by getting involved with MetaDAO.

As of the podcast recording, over 250 people had already participated in MetaDAO's Futarchy markets, making them among the first in history to engage in market-based governance on this scale.

The Future of Governance on Solana

The implementation of Futarchy on Solana through MetaDAO represents a significant step forward in blockchain governance innovation. By leveraging Solana's high-performance infrastructure, MetaDAO is able to experiment with complex governance mechanisms that may have been impractical on other platforms.

This project not only showcases the technical capabilities of Solana but also positions the ecosystem at the forefront of governance experimentation in the crypto space. As MetaDAO continues to develop and refine its Futarchy implementation, it has the potential to attract more projects and users to the Solana ecosystem, further solidifying its position as a leading platform for decentralized innovation.

Implications for Traditional Organizations

The concepts explored in Futarchy and MetaDAO have implications that extend far beyond the crypto world. Traditional corporations, non-profits, and even governments could potentially benefit from incorporating elements of market-based decision-making into their governance structures.

Proph3t envisions a future where large organizations can operate more like a collection of autonomous startups, leveraging common resources without the need for rigid hierarchies. This could lead to more agile and efficient organizations that can better respond to changing market conditions and stakeholder needs.

The Role of Tokenomics in Futarchy

Central to the Futarchy model is the use of a reference asset, in this case, the META token. The token serves as a proxy for the overall health and success of the organization, with market participants trading based on their predictions of how proposals will affect the token's value.

This approach ties governance decisions directly to the economic interests of token holders, creating a feedback loop that theoretically aligns individual incentives with the collective good of the organization. As the Futarchy experiment progresses, it will be interesting to see how this tokenomic model evolves and whether it can effectively capture and represent the diverse interests of all stakeholders.

Addressing Potential Criticisms

While the concept of Futarchy is compelling, it's important to address potential criticisms and concerns:

  1. Participation barriers: The requirement to stake real assets in order to participate in governance decisions could potentially exclude certain stakeholders.

  2. Short-term thinking: There's a risk that market-based decisions could prioritize short-term gains over long-term sustainability.

  3. Complexity: The system may be too complex for the average participant to understand fully, potentially leading to unintended consequences.

  4. Market manipulation: While Futarchy has built-in mechanisms to resist manipulation, sophisticated actors may still find ways to game the system.

Proph3t and the MetaDAO team are aware of these potential issues and are actively working on solutions and refinements to address them as the project develops.

The Importance of Experimentation in Governance

One of the most valuable aspects of the MetaDAO project is its commitment to real-world experimentation with new governance models. As Proph3t points out, it has been thousands of years since humanity has fundamentally changed its governance mechanisms, and projects like MetaDAO provide a unique opportunity to explore alternative approaches.

By building on Solana, MetaDAO is able to iterate quickly and gather data on how Futarchy performs in practice. This empirical approach to governance innovation could yield valuable insights that benefit not just the crypto community, but society as a whole.

The Technical Challenges of Implementing Futarchy on Solana

Implementing Futarchy on Solana presents unique technical challenges that the MetaDAO team has had to overcome. Some of these challenges include:

  1. State rent: The cost of maintaining open markets on Solana can be significant, especially after recent price increases in SOL.

  2. Throughput limitations: While Solana is known for its high throughput, the complex nature of Futarchy markets still poses scaling challenges.

  3. Market mechanism design: Designing efficient and fair market mechanisms that work within the constraints of blockchain technology is an ongoing area of research and development.

  4. Smart contract complexity: Implementing the logic for conditional markets and proposal execution requires sophisticated smart contract development.

Despite these challenges, Solana's high-performance architecture provides a solid foundation for experimenting with complex governance systems like Futarchy. As the project evolves, it will likely push the boundaries of what's possible in on-chain governance and contribute to the overall advancement of the Solana ecosystem.

The Potential for Cross-Chain Governance

While MetaDAO is currently focused on Solana, the principles of Futarchy could potentially be applied across multiple blockchain ecosystems. This raises interesting questions about the future of cross-chain governance and how decentralized organizations might operate across different blockchain networks.

As blockchain interoperability improves, we may see Futarchy-based systems that can make decisions affecting multiple chains or bridge between different governance models on various platforms. This could lead to a new era of blockchain coordination and collaboration, with Solana-based projects like MetaDAO at the forefront of this innovation.

The Role of Privacy in Futarchy

An interesting aspect of Futarchy that wasn't explicitly discussed in the podcast but is worth considering is the role of privacy. In traditional voting systems, ballot secrecy is often considered crucial for preventing coercion and ensuring free expression of preferences. However, in a market-based system like Futarchy, all trades are inherently public on the blockchain.

This transparency could have both positive and negative implications. On one hand, it allows for full auditability and accountability. On the other hand, it might influence participant behavior or create opportunities for strategic trading based on observed market movements. As MetaDAO and other Futarchy implementations evolve, finding the right balance between transparency and privacy will likely be an important consideration.

Integrating Futarchy with Other Governance Models

While Futarchy represents a radical departure from traditional governance models, it doesn't necessarily have to be an all-or-nothing proposition. There may be opportunities to integrate elements of Futarchy into existing governance structures, creating hybrid models that combine the best aspects of different approaches.

For example, a DAO could use Futarchy for certain types of decisions while retaining token-based voting for others. Or a traditional corporation could implement internal prediction markets to inform board-level decisions without fully replacing their existing governance structure. As projects like MetaDAO demonstrate the viability of market-based governance, we may see increased experimentation with such hybrid models across various organizations.

The Psychological Impact of Market-Based Governance

One intriguing aspect of Futarchy is its potential psychological impact on participants. Unlike traditional voting systems where people often vote based on ideological preferences or incomplete information, Futarchy requires participants to "put their money where their mouth is."

This requirement to stake real assets on governance decisions could lead to more thoughtful and researched participation. It may also help to mitigate some of the psychological biases that often plague decision-making in large groups, such as groupthink or the bandwagon effect. As MetaDAO continues to develop, studying the psychological aspects of participation in Futarchy could yield valuable insights into human decision-making and collective intelligence.

The Potential for Futarchy in Public Goods Funding

An exciting potential application of Futarchy that wasn't explicitly discussed in the podcast is its use in public goods funding. Traditional methods of funding public goods often suffer from free-rider problems and difficulties in measuring impact. A Futarchy-based system could potentially address these issues by creating markets that predict the impact of various public goods projects on agreed-upon metrics of social welfare.

This could be particularly relevant in the context of blockchain ecosystems like Solana, where funding decisions for ecosystem development and public infrastructure are often contentious. By implementing Futarchy for such decisions, projects like MetaDAO could pave the way for more efficient and effective allocation of resources towards public goods in the crypto space and beyond.

The Importance of User Experience in Futarchy Adoption

As with any new technology, the success of Futarchy will depend in large part on its user experience. While the underlying concepts of market-based governance may be complex, participating in a Futarchy system needs to be intuitive and accessible for it to achieve widespread adoption.

The MetaDAO team faces the challenge of creating interfaces and user flows that make it easy for participants to understand the implications of their trades and the overall state of the governance system. As the project develops, focusing on user experience and education will be crucial for expanding participation beyond early adopters and crypto enthusiasts.

The Regulatory Landscape for Futarchy

As Futarchy involves elements of prediction markets and potentially could be seen as a form of gambling or securities trading, navigating the regulatory landscape will be a crucial challenge for projects like MetaDAO. The decentralized nature of these systems adds another layer of complexity to regulatory compliance.

While the podcast didn't delve into regulatory issues, it's an area that will likely become increasingly important as Futarchy gains traction. The Solana ecosystem, with its focus on compliance and institutional adoption, could provide a solid foundation for addressing these challenges and potentially working with regulators to create frameworks that allow for innovation in governance while protecting participants.

The Role of Oracles in Futarchy

While not explicitly discussed in the podcast, the role of oracles in a Futarchy system is crucial. Oracles are needed to provide reliable information about real-world outcomes that affect the resolution of prediction markets. In the case of MetaDAO, this might involve price feeds for the META token or other relevant data points.

The Solana ecosystem has several robust oracle solutions, such as Pyth Network, which could be leveraged to provide the necessary data for Futarchy markets. As MetaDAO and similar projects evolve, the development of specialized oracles for governance-related data could become an important area of innovation within the Solana ecosystem.

The Potential for AI Integration in Futarchy

An exciting area for future development in Futarchy systems like MetaDAO is the potential integration of artificial intelligence. AI could be used in several ways to enhance the effectiveness of market-based governance:

  1. Market analysis: AI algorithms could analyze market trends and provide insights to participants, potentially leading to more informed trading.

  2. Proposal generation: AI systems could help generate and refine proposals based on historical data and current market conditions.

  3. Risk assessment: AI could be used to evaluate the potential risks and impacts of different proposals, providing additional context for decision-makers.

  4. Anomaly detection: AI systems could monitor markets for unusual activity that might indicate attempts at manipulation.

As both AI and Futarchy systems evolve, their integration could lead to even more sophisticated and effective governance mechanisms. The high-performance nature of the Solana blockchain makes it an ideal platform for exploring these AI-enhanced governance models.

Conclusion: The Dawn of a New Era in Governance

The conversation with Proph3t about MetaDAO and Futarchy reveals a glimpse into a potential future where governance is radically transformed by market mechanisms and blockchain technology. While still in its early stages, this experiment in decentralized, market-based decision-making has the potential to reshape how we think about collective choice and organizational management.

Built on Solana's high-performance blockchain, MetaDAO is at the forefront of governance innovation in the crypto space. As the project continues to develop and refine its implementation of Futarchy, it will likely attract more attention from both within and outside the blockchain community.

The success of MetaDAO could have far-reaching implications, not just for other blockchain projects, but potentially for traditional organizations and even governments. By providing a real-world test bed for these revolutionary ideas, MetaDAO and the Solana ecosystem are contributing to a broader conversation about the future of governance in an increasingly decentralized world.

As we stand on the brink of this new era in governance, projects like MetaDAO remind us of the transformative potential of blockchain technology. They challenge us to rethink our assumptions about how decisions should be made and resources allocated in large organizations. Whether Futarchy ultimately lives up to its promise remains to be seen, but the experiment itself is a testament to the innovation and forward-thinking that characterizes the Solana ecosystem.

For those interested in the future of governance, decentralized organizations, and the practical applications of blockchain technology, MetaDAO and its implementation of Futarchy on Solana will undoubtedly be a project to watch closely in the coming years.

Facts + Figures

  • Proph3t published the MetaDAO whitepaper on November 10, 2022, just two days after the FTX collapse.

  • Over 250 people have participated in MetaDAO's Futarchy markets, making them among the first in history to engage in market-based governance on this scale.

  • Proph3t estimates the probability of Futarchy "totally working and reshaping a lot of stuff" to be between 50% and 80%.

  • Presidential prediction markets have been more accurate than expert pollsters in forecasting election outcomes.

  • Google and HP successfully used internal prediction markets to make business forecasts, outperforming their previous expert-based systems.

  • In 1984, financial markets correctly identified the cause of the Challenger space shuttle disaster within 14 minutes, while it took the government four months to reach the same conclusion.

  • MetaDAO is currently in its "infant stage" or "pre-seed" phase in startup terms.

  • The implementation of Futarchy on Solana faces technical challenges, including state rent costs and throughput limitations.

  • MetaDAO is planning to move to an AMM-based system to improve liquidity in its markets.

  • Proph3t describes the vision for MetaDAO as creating an organization that operates as an amalgamation of autonomous startups leveraging common assets.

  • The META token serves as the reference asset for decision-making in MetaDAO's Futarchy implementation.

  • Futarchy uses two conditional markets for each proposal: one for the token price if the proposal passes, and one for if it fails.

  • MetaDAO has already seen significant interest from other DAOs looking to implement Futarchy.

  • The podcast mentions a real example of attempted market manipulation in MetaDAO, which ultimately failed due to the system's design.

  • Proph3t suggests that Futarchy could potentially replace traditional managerial roles in organizations.

Questions Answered

What is Futarchy?

Futarchy is a form of governance that uses markets to make decisions. Instead of relying on traditional voting systems, Futarchy creates conditional markets for each proposal, allowing participants to trade based on their predictions of the proposal's impact. This market-based approach aims to harness collective wisdom and align incentives for more efficient decision-making.

How does Futarchy work in practice?

In practice, Futarchy creates two conditional markets for each proposal: one for if the proposal passes, and one for if it fails. Participants can trade in these markets, effectively betting on the outcome they believe will be most beneficial. If the price in the "pass" market is higher than the "fail" market, the proposal is executed. This mechanism aligns the incentives of participants with the long-term success of the organization.

Why did Proph3t choose to build MetaDAO on Solana?

Proph3t chose to build MetaDAO on Solana because he believed it was the "best chain" available, offering superior performance and scalability compared to other blockchain platforms. Despite his background in Ethereum, he saw Solana as the ideal platform for experimenting with complex governance mechanisms like Futarchy, due to its high-performance infrastructure.

What are the main challenges facing MetaDAO and Futarchy implementation?

The main challenges facing MetaDAO and Futarchy implementation include improving liquidity in the markets, addressing throughput and latency limitations, and designing effective incentives for participation. Additionally, there are technical challenges related to smart contract complexity and the cost of maintaining open markets on Solana. The team is actively working on solutions to these challenges to make Futarchy more scalable and efficient.

How does Futarchy compare to traditional voting systems?

Futarchy offers several advantages over traditional voting systems. It provides more efficient information aggregation, aligns incentives through financial stakes, offers quantifiable impact measures through market prices, and is more resistant to manipulation. Unlike traditional voting, where all votes are counted equally regardless of the voter's knowledge or stake, Futarchy encourages more thoughtful participation and can potentially lead to better-informed decisions.

What evidence supports the effectiveness of market-based decision-making?

Several examples support the effectiveness of market-based decision-making. Presidential prediction markets have outperformed expert pollsters in forecasting election outcomes. Companies like Google and HP have successfully used internal prediction markets for business forecasts, outperforming their previous expert-based systems. In a notable historical example, financial markets correctly identified the cause of the Challenger space shuttle disaster within 14 minutes, while it took the government four months to reach the same conclusion.

How can someone participate in the Futarchy experiment with MetaDAO?

Anyone can participate in MetaDAO's Futarchy experiment by engaging with their conditional markets. As of the podcast recording, over 250 people had already participated. To get involved, interested individuals can join the MetaDAO community, learn about the current proposals, and start trading in the conditional markets. Proph3t encourages listeners to consider the potential impact of their work and invites them to contribute to shaping the future of governance by getting involved with MetaDAO.

What is the vision for MetaDAO beyond implementing Futarchy?

The vision for MetaDAO goes beyond just implementing Futarchy as a governance mechanism. Proph3t envisions creating a new type of decentralized organization that operates as an amalgamation of autonomous startups leveraging common assets. This approach aims to combine the benefits of large organizations (economies of scale, brand recognition) with the agility and innovation of startups, all coordinated through market-based governance mechanisms.

How might Futarchy impact traditional organizations and governance structures?

Futarchy has the potential to significantly impact traditional organizations and governance structures by providing a more efficient and manipulation-resistant method of decision-making. It could address many shortcomings of current democratic and bureaucratic processes. While it may not completely replace existing systems, elements of Futarchy could be integrated into traditional governance structures, creating hybrid models that combine the best aspects of different approaches. This could lead to more agile and efficient organizations in both the public and private sectors.

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