2024 Crypto Predictions from Top Traders: Solana's Rise, Meme Coins, and More

In a recent episode of the Lightspeed podcast, host Mert Mumtaz sat down with two of crypto's top traders, Ansem and Joe McCann, to discuss their reflections on 2023 and predictions for the crypto market in 2024. The conversation covered a wide range of topics, from Solana's meteoric rise to the future of meme coins and the evolving landscape of blockchain technology.

Solana's Remarkable Recovery in 2023

The podcast kicked off with a discussion of Solana's impressive performance in 2023. Ansem, who had been bullish on Solana when its price was around $20, reflected on the ecosystem's recovery:

"I always expected Solana to rebound hard. I really was not sure on the timing of it. That was the hardest part for me. I was like, I know bear markets can draw out longer than we expect sometimes. But I know, eventually, just with the caliber of the teams on Solana, how mispriced it was relative to the FTX explosion and like all the attention developers, communities still active in the ecosystem. I know it was going to rebound eventually and rebound hard."

Joe McCann echoed this sentiment, highlighting the significance of Solana's price surpassing its previous high around the time of the FTX implosion:

"To me, they just felt like this sort of vindication because of all the work that builders, the creators, the core team of Solana, the foundation, the broader Solana community just felt like something had fundamentally changed."

The Evolution of DeFi on Solana

One of the key factors behind Solana's resurgence has been the improvement in its DeFi ecosystem. Ansem pointed out the significant progress made by DeFi teams on Solana:

"That's the biggest part for me because in the Solana ecosystem in its early days, there weren't a lot of good DeFi teams. There were like a couple, but mostly the Solana tokens and Solana DeFi teams were not great. And they had a retail had a bad experience with them. And I think moving forward, if you have an experience on Solana where the applications are competitive with their ETH counterparts and other L1 counterparts and the experience is it's 100X cheaper, much faster and the UX is arguably better than it is on these other applications."

This improvement in DeFi applications has made Solana more competitive with other smart contract platforms, potentially setting the stage for further growth in 2024.

The Impact of Token Airdrops and Distribution Mechanisms

The conversation then turned to the role of token airdrops and new distribution mechanisms in driving market cycles. Joe McCann highlighted an interesting observation:

"Two-shar at multi-coin had this really brilliant insight a few years ago about, you know, typically a new bull market kicks off when there's a new distribution mechanism for tokens to get in the hands of users. And I really strongly believe that."

The discussion touched on the recent success of airdrops associated with the Solana Saga phone, which has created a new go-to-market strategy for projects looking to distribute tokens to committed Solana users.

Navigating Crypto's Volatility as a Builder

Both Ansem and Joe offered advice for builders trying to navigate the extreme volatility and sentiment shifts in the crypto market. Ansem emphasized the importance of staying focused on building rather than getting caught up in short-term price movements:

"I think in my head, it's like you really should stay off of CT (Crypto Twitter) as much as possible. If you have strong conviction in what you're building, um, and like have, I don't know, delegate some of that who's handling that to somebody else in your team."

Joe added perspective on the unique challenges faced by crypto project founders:

"For the first time ever really, uh, and man, I know Anatoly and Raj had to deal with this painfully over the past, you know, 20 months or so. Um, the success of your project is directly associated with the price of the asset associated with your project or protocol."

The Future of Ethereum DeFi and L2s

The traders shared their thoughts on the future of Ethereum DeFi and Layer 2 solutions. Joe expressed skepticism about the long-term prospects of some current DeFi models:

"The notion of swapping and getting shitty fills and a huge spread, first of all, it never worked in real institutional trad file. I would never do it. But I think more importantly, it's a vestige of bag holders from ETH that they, I'm sure you guys do too, get introduced to people that are like, I'm launching this new token on Ethereum and I'm like, why?"

Ansem, however, pointed out that Ethereum DeFi still has significant advantages in terms of security and liquidity:

"ETH DeFi is not going anywhere. I mean, ETH is still by far the most secure of all the chains. So I think all the money there, the TVL over there on ETH is super, super, super sticky."

The Rise of Modular Blockchain Architectures

A significant portion of the discussion was dedicated to the emerging trend of modular blockchain architectures, particularly the separation of execution, settlement, and data availability layers. Ansem shared his perspective on this development:

"For the modular pieces, I think ETH is going to have to compete with teams like Celestia. Um, they're going to have to compete with teams like like near an Eigen layer, teams like polygon of veil on the DA side of things because if it's cheaper for roll ups to post their data or DA there, um, on these other, these other chains and then just settle to Ethereum, I think a lot of roll ups are going to do that."

This shift towards modular architectures could potentially reshape the competitive landscape among blockchain platforms in 2024 and beyond.

Hot Predictions for 2024

Towards the end of the podcast, both traders shared their hottest predictions for the crypto market in 2024. Joe McCann boldly stated:

"I'm going to say the Sol ETH cross is going to create massive pain for ETH holders. I think Sol probably dramatically outperforms ETH again in 2024."

Ansem offered three predictions:

1. "I think there's going to be more roll-ups deployed in the cosmos ecosystem this next year than there are in the ETH ecosystem."
2. "I think there's going to be two chains doing more daily active dex volume than ETH mainnet, whether that's one of the biggest roll-ups on ETH or another L1 or two other L1s."
3. "I think there's going to be a breakout game in crypto, one that has consistent activity month over month, not just crypto users, but also web two users to the point where it's comparative with some of the other biggest games that people stream."

The Continued Relevance of Meme Coins

The podcast concluded with a discussion on the ongoing popularity of meme coins, particularly focusing on the rise of "Dogwifhat" (WIF) on Solana. Ansem explained the appeal:

"I think whip is my favorite meme, bro. I like it's been picked up so fast. I've never seen a meme get picked up so fast by traditional media."

Joe McCann added perspective on the potential for viral growth in meme coins:

"When the viral buying nature of retail gets a hold of something, you just have to hold on. Right. Because you don't know where it's going to end up."

Conclusion: A Dynamic Year Ahead for Crypto

As we move into 2024, the insights shared by Ansem and Joe McCann paint a picture of a crypto market poised for significant developments. From Solana's continued growth to the evolution of DeFi, the rise of modular blockchain architectures, and the persistent appeal of meme coins, the year ahead promises to be full of opportunities and challenges for traders, builders, and investors alike.

The discussion underscores the importance of staying informed about technological advancements, market trends, and shifting narratives in the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency. As always, while the potential for growth is significant, it's crucial for participants in the crypto market to approach investments with caution and conduct thorough research.

With Solana's ecosystem showing strong signs of recovery and innovation, 2024 could be a pivotal year for the platform to solidify its position as a leading blockchain for decentralized applications and financial services. The predictions and insights shared in this podcast offer valuable food for thought for anyone looking to navigate the exciting and often unpredictable world of cryptocurrency in the coming year.

Facts + Figures

• Solana's price increased from $13 in December 2022 to approximately $100 in January 2024
• Solana's market cap was about one-tenth or one-seventh of Ethereum's at the time of the podcast
• The Bonk Telegram bot reportedly processed more transactions per second than Ethereum L1 on Christmas Day
• Bonk's protocol revenue is higher than Magic Eden, a billion-dollar startup
• Dogecoin reached a market cap of $85 billion at its peak in 2021
• Shiba Inu reached a market cap of approximately $40-48 billion at its peak
• Bonk had a market cap of around $1 billion at the time of the podcast
• Shiba Inu on Ethereum had a market cap of about $10 billion at the time of the podcast
• The Solana Saga phone sold out due to an airdrop of Bonk tokens
• Celestia's token price rose from around $2 to $15 within six weeks of launch
• Ansem predicted that two chains will have more daily active DEX volume than Ethereum mainnet by the end of 2024
• Joe McCann predicted that the SOL/ETH price ratio will dramatically favor Solana in 2024
• Ansem predicted more rollups will be deployed in the Cosmos ecosystem than in the Ethereum ecosystem in 2024
• The podcast mentions that approximately 50 blockchain games are expected to launch in 2024

Questions Answered

What caused Solana's price to rebound so strongly in 2023?

Solana's price rebounded strongly in 2023 due to a combination of factors. The caliber of teams building on Solana, the mispricing relative to the FTX explosion, and the continued attention from developers and active communities all contributed to the recovery. Additionally, improvements in DeFi applications on Solana, making them competitive with Ethereum counterparts in terms of functionality and user experience, played a significant role in attracting users and investors back to the ecosystem.

How do meme coins like Bonk and Dogwifhat (WIF) impact the crypto ecosystem?

Meme coins like Bonk and Dogwifhat have a significant impact on the crypto ecosystem by attracting retail investors and generating viral interest. These coins often serve as entry points for new users into the crypto space and can drive substantial trading volume and liquidity. Additionally, successful meme coins can contribute to the broader ecosystem by funding development and community initiatives. However, they also introduce volatility and speculative behavior, which can be both a benefit and a risk for the market.

What are the key predictions for the crypto market in 2024?

Key predictions for the crypto market in 2024 include: Solana outperforming Ethereum in terms of price action, more rollups being deployed in the Cosmos ecosystem than in the Ethereum ecosystem, two chains surpassing Ethereum mainnet in daily active DEX volume, and the emergence of a breakout blockchain game with consistent activity from both crypto and web2 users. Additionally, there's an expectation of continued growth in modular blockchain architectures and potential shifts in value accrual across different layers of the blockchain stack.

How is the landscape of DeFi evolving across different blockchains?

The DeFi landscape is evolving rapidly across different blockchains. On Solana, there has been significant improvement in the quality and competitiveness of DeFi applications, making them comparable to Ethereum counterparts while offering faster and cheaper transactions. Ethereum continues to maintain a strong position due to its security and established liquidity, but faces challenges from Layer 2 solutions and other blockchains. The rise of modular architectures is also reshaping DeFi, with potential for more efficient and specialized solutions across different layers of the blockchain stack.

What role do token airdrops play in driving crypto market cycles?

Token airdrops play a crucial role in driving crypto market cycles by introducing new distribution mechanisms for getting tokens into the hands of users. This can kickstart new bull markets by generating interest and activity around new projects. The recent success of airdrops associated with the Solana Saga phone demonstrates how innovative distribution methods can create momentum for both individual projects and the broader ecosystem. Airdrops can also serve as a way to reward early adopters and community members, further strengthening ecosystem engagement.

How should crypto builders navigate market volatility and sentiment shifts?

Crypto builders should focus on their core mission and development goals rather than getting caught up in short-term price movements and market sentiment. It's advisable to limit exposure to crypto Twitter and other sources of market noise that can be distracting or demoralizing. Builders should maintain strong conviction in their projects and consider delegating the handling of market-related matters to team members better equipped to deal with volatility. It's important to remember that the success of a project is often tied to the price of its associated token, which can be both a challenge and an opportunity for builders in the crypto space.

What are the potential impacts of modular blockchain architectures on the crypto ecosystem?

Modular blockchain architectures, which separate execution, settlement, and data availability layers, have the potential to significantly impact the crypto ecosystem. They may lead to more efficient and specialized solutions for different aspects of blockchain functionality. This could result in increased competition among different layers and protocols, potentially reshaping the value accrual across the blockchain stack. For example, Ethereum may face competition from specialized data availability layers like Celestia, which could affect how rollups and other scaling solutions are implemented and valued in the market.

How are institutional investors approaching the crypto market going into 2024?

Institutional investors are showing increased interest in the crypto market going into 2024. There's evidence of large traditional finance hedge funds beginning to allocate capital to cryptocurrencies like Solana, often starting with smaller positions and potentially increasing their exposure over time. The podcast mentions a macro trader from a major traditional finance hedge fund making their first significant purchase of Solana. Additionally, there's an observation that many venture capital firms are still underexposed to the crypto market, which could lead to increased institutional buying pressure in the coming year.